Karnataka to see 1.2 lakh Covid cases daily from February 1, claim experts

Professors from the Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) and the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) have predicted that Karnataka, at the peak of the spread of the Omicron virus in February, will have 1.2 lakh cases per day in the worst-case scenario.

In the best-case scenario, it will report 40,000 cases per day, they have predicted. They have taken into account Omicron’s high transmissibility rate.

Prof Siva Athreya, a probability theorist specialising in statistical physics and population biology from ISI, and Rajesh Sundaresan, dean of the division of EECS (Electrical, Electronics, and Computer Sciences) from IISc and his team from the Centre for Networked Intelligence, IISc, have made Omicron projections for January-March for India and the states.

“Past infection and vaccination (if the immunity has waned) make a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant, the authors said, on the IISc website, summarising their model. This has been taken as a parameter in their projections.

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According to the model, after February 1, if 100% are considered ‘susceptible,’ then the daily cases will cross 1,20,000.

If 30% are considered susceptible, then a few days before February 1, the state may see a daily case count of 40,000 cases.

In the moderate scenario, if 60% are thought to be susceptible, the daily case tally may be more than 80,000, a few days before February 1.

The authors estimated the contact rates for the model by comparing contact rates for South Africa (the epicentre of the Omicron outbreak) from May 15–June 15, 2021, and December 1-12, 2021. The model assumed the contact rate for Omicron to be 1.41 times of Delta.

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“On day 0, each state is seeded with 20 cases. Once stimulated, a suitable delay is added to align to the increasing trend during 27 December 2021–2 January 2022,” the summary read.

1.2k admissions a day

Dr Rajath Athreya (senior consultant and HoD, paediatrics and neonatology, Sakra World Hospital), who is a member of the state Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee, told DH, “Even if 1% of the cases need hospitalisation, it will mean 400 to 1,200 admissions per day.”

TAC chairman Dr M K Sudarshan said the CM might be briefed about these projections on Tuesday evening.

‘Cases doubling every 2-3 days’

Confirming the rapid spread of cases, Health Minister Dr K Sudhakar tweeted that data showed cases are doubling every two to three days in Karnataka.

Also Read | Upsurge of Covid cases happening in cities; Omicron predominant variant: Centre

Data over nine days from December 27 to January 4, showed that while the daily new cases on December 27 was 289, it doubled to 566 on December 29.

This further doubled on January 1, when 1,033 new cases were reported.

On January 4, the positivity rate shot up to 2.59% in Karnataka with 2,479 new cases. Bengaluru’s case count also crossed the 2,000-mark with 2,053 cases.

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