Explained | What we know about the fate of Iran’s nuclear program after Israeli and US strikes

Last weekend, President Donald Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “completely and totally obliterated” by US airstrikes. The full extent of the damage, which is being assessed by US spy agencies, is still unclear.

Several disclosures and claims by US and United Nations officials, along with satellite images taken after the US and Israeli airstrikes, have shed some light on the situation in Iran:

• A leaked US intelligence report said the attacks set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a few months — a finding disputed by Trump.

• CIA Director John Ratcliffe said Wednesday that the strikes had “severely damaged” Iran’s nuclear program.

• Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, said Thursday that centrifuges at the deeply buried Fordo uranium enrichment plant are “no longer operational,” but that it would be “too much” to assert that Iran’s nuclear program had been “wiped out.”

Here’s what we know so far about the state of Iran’s nuclear program after the Israeli and US attacks:

Fordo

Iran built the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant deep inside a mountain, impervious to all but a repeated assault from US “bunker buster” bombs. A US official said that six B-2 bombers dropped a dozen 30,000-pound bombs on Fordo on Sunday.

The Fordo site contained thousands of Iran’s most advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium, which could be used in a nuclear weapon. In 2023, the IAEA reported that it had discovered uranium that had been enriched to 83.7 per cent purity at Fordo — just under the 90 per cent required for a weapon.

Satellite images taken shortly after the US airstrikes reveal damage and likely entry points for the US bunker-buster bombs. The images show distinct changes in the ground’s appearance and gray dust near the possible strike locations.

A New York Times analysis of satellite images showed that the United States had targeted Fordo at the precise locations of two structures that experts said might be ventilation shafts.

The leaked US classified intelligence report found that the bombs had sealed the entrances to two facilities but had failed to collapse their underground buildings. That might enable Iran to continue using the site after rebuilding.

Grossi said that given the power of the bombs dropped on Fordo, "we already know that these centrifuges are no longer operational." The spinning machinery of high-speed centrifuges requires a high degree of precision and is vulnerable to intense vibrations, he said.

Natanz

Natanz, the site of Iran’s largest uranium enrichment center, was damaged by multiple Israeli airstrikes, along with a US attack that appears to have targeted the complex’s underground enrichment halls.

The IAEA said it had identified “direct impacts” on the underground enrichment halls at Natanz after Israel targeted the facility with missiles. It also said the attack had destroyed the above-ground part of the fuel enrichment plant.

Unlike in Fordo, Natanz’s facilities were buried only a few meters deep. Satellite images from Sunday show two craters over the suspected location of those facilities.

Isfahan

A US Navy submarine fired more than two dozen cruise missiles at a third site, Isfahan, which had also been attacked by the Israeli military.

The site was thought to house enriched uranium, along with facilities to process uranium ore and turn uranium gas into a solid form, to potentially be used in a weapon.

The IAEA reported that one of Israel’s attacks on Isfahan hit 'the enriched uranium metal processing facility, which was under construction,' and the US strikes also targeted the Isfahan facility.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited the damage to Isfahan as evidence that Iran’s nuclear program had been curtailed by the Israeli and US strikes.

He centered his argument on the belief that the “conversion facility” in Isfahan — which is key to converting nuclear fuel into the form needed to produce a nuclear weapon — had been destroyed.

International inspectors and nuclear experts agree that the extensive damage to the conversion facility would create a key bottleneck in the weapons-making process and that rebuilding it would most likely take years.

But that assumes that Iran had not built another conversion plant in secret, as part of an insurance policy against the destruction of its declared facilities, which were inspected by the IAEA.

A Secret Site

Iran has a long history of building covert underground nuclear sites.

This month, Iranian officials claimed that the country had another enrichment site “in a secure and invulnerable location.” Experts believe the new site could be near Natanz, under Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā, a mountain nearly 1 mile above sea level. That means it could be buried nearly twice as deep as Fordo.

Enriched Uranium?

Senior US officials have conceded they do not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium.

Before the US strikes, there was evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity from Isfahan.

Grossi told the Times by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of UN inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. The fuel is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars.