Explained | What’s at stake in the Iran-US nuclear talks

Saudi Arabia: A third round of talks between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear activities was planned for Saturday, raising hopes for a new accord that could avert another conflict in the Middle East.

“I think we’re going to make a deal with Iran. Nobody else could do that,” President Donald Trump said in an interview with Time magazine published Friday. Trump abandoned a previous nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 during his first term, saying it was a flawed agreement.

The talks have the potential to reshape regional and global security by reducing the chance of a US-backed Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and preventing Iran from producing a nuclear weapon. A deal could also transform Iran’s economic and political landscape by easing US sanctions and opening the country to foreign investors.

What’s happening Saturday?

Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy; Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister; and teams of technical experts from both sides will meet in the Gulf sultanate of Oman, which is mediating the talks.

This round will include the nuts-and-bolts “expert talks,” which bring together nuclear and financial teams from both sides to hash out technical details. These could include issues such as the monitoring of Iran’s nuclear facilities, its uranium enrichment levels and what will happen to its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, along with easing sanctions.

Trump has defined the objective of the negotiations as preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Officials in his administration, however, have sent mixed messages about what that means. Saturday’s talks could help clarify the outlines of a deal.

What’s at stake?

A new nuclear agreement could delay or avert a broader conflict between Iran and Israel and the United States. Israel and Iran have traded direct attacks since the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip began in 2023.

Last week, The New York Times reported that Israel had planned to attack Iranian nuclear sites as soon as next month, but it was waved off by Trump, who wanted to negotiate an agreement with Tehran instead.

Trump, in his Time interview, said he did not stop Israel’s attack.

“But I didn’t make it comfortable for them, because I think we can make a deal without the attack. I hope we can,” he said. “It’s possible we’ll have to attack because Iran will not have a nuclear weapon.”

Iran has been enriching uranium to around 60% purity, just short of the levels needed to produce a weapon. It has amassed enough to build several bombs if it chooses to weaponize, according to the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, and the IAEA has said it has not found signs of weaponization.

If its nuclear facilities are attacked, Iran has said it would retaliate fiercely and would consider leaving the United Nations Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Iran’s economy and the future of its 90 million people are also on the line.

Years of sanctions have created chronic inflation — exacerbated by economic mismanagement and corruption. Now, many Iranians say they feel trapped in a downward spiral and hope that a U.S.-Iran deal would help.

What happened in previous talks?

The first round of nuclear talks was in Oman two weeks ago, followed by a second round in Rome last weekend.

Both sides have said negotiations have been constructive and that they were moving in the right direction.

Iranian officials have said they are willing to reduce enrichment levels to those specified in the 2015 nuclear agreement with the Obama administration — 3.67% — around the level needed to produce fuel for nuclear power plants.

What are the sticking points?

The question of whether to allow Iran to continue enriching uranium has divided Trump’s advisers.

Witkoff has described a possible agreement that would allow Iran to enrich uranium at the low levels needed to produce fuel for energy, along with monitoring.

But in a podcast interview this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that Iran could have a civilian nuclear program without enriching uranium domestically — by importing enriched uranium, as other countries do.

Mike Waltz, the national security adviser, has said the United States was seeking a total dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program, a position Iran has deemed a nonstarter.

Iran invited the United States to invest in its nuclear program and help build 19 more nuclear reactors as an extra measure of security, according to Araghchi.

“The trillion-dollar opportunity that our economy presents may be open to U.S. enterprises,” Araghchi said in a speech he shared on social media. “This includes companies which can help us generate clean electricity from non-hydrocarbon sources.”

Agreeing to limits on how much enriched uranium Iran can possess and to what level it can enrich exposes Trump to criticism that he is only replicating the key elements of the Obama-era nuclear agreement.

Analysts say some possible measures to improve on the old deal could include more stringent monitoring of Iran’s nuclear activities, joint ventures to run the nuclear facilities and making Iran’s guarantees permanent.

How did we get here?

The two sides came into the negotiations with deep distrust.

The previous deal between Iran and the United States and other world powers was called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

It put measures in place to prevent Iran from weaponizing its nuclear program by capping enrichment of uranium at 3.5%, transferring stockpiles of enriched uranium to Russia and allowing monitoring cameras and inspections by the IAEA.

European companies pulled out of Iran, and banks stopped working with Iran, fearing U.S. sanctions.

About a year after the deal was reached, Iran, not seeing any financial benefits, moved away from its obligations and increased its levels uranium enrichment, gradually reaching 60%.

What comes next?

So far, there appears to be political will on both sides to reach a new deal.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had barred negotiating with Trump in the past, authorized the talks and said the negotiating team has his support.

But a deal is not necessarily around the corner.

Talks could still break down at the technical level, which was the most challenging part of previous negotiations.

It is also possible that an interim deal could be reached to freeze uranium enrichment while a permanent deal is hashed out.