Germany breaks post-war military restraint

Country to spend almost €1 trillion to build Europe’s ‘strongest military’ force

Are you ready for war? Forget such a chilling question — even the word ‘war’ has long been taboo in post-World War II Germany, although it has fulfilled military obligations as part of NATO and participated in peacekeeping missions.

The pacifist legacy is linked to the Nazi past, when a heavily militarised Germany invaded Poland, triggering World War II. The Holocaust, which claimed the lives of about six million Jews, remains a blemish that Germany has not overcome, even after eight decades.

But that decades-old restraint was flung out of the window during a special session of Parliament, held days after the Russian air strikes on Ukraine in February 2022 — an attack that shattered the illusion that Europe was safe from war.

Then Chancellor Olaf Scholz allocated a special defence fund of 100 billion euros to correct years of underinvestment, propelling Germany to become the top military spender in Europe. The main driver behind this move was Berlin’s distrust of Russia under Vladimir Putin, fearing he might not stop with Ukraine.

While Scholz had pledged to set aside a defence budget of 2% of GDP, his successor government is now considering raising it to 5% — reportedly after being prodded by US President Donald Trump, who wants Europe to defend itself rather than rely on the American military machine. In comparison, America’s defence budget stands at 3.4% of its GDP.

Fuelled by his “whatever it takes” mantra, current Chancellor Friedrich Merz aims to transform the Bundeswehr (German federal armed forces) into the most formidable conventional defence force in Europe — a historic break from post-war restraint.

Although any comparison with Nazi Germany’s mighty war machine is something that today’s Germany — or most of it — would abhor, the country is rearming rapidly in an attempt to have a reasonably modernised military by 2028.

Defence Minister Boris Pistorius recently indicated that Germany would gradually increase its defence budget to 5%. This declaration came even before NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte urged member states to increase their defence budgets to the same level.

Pistorius plans to hike the defence budget from 52 billion euros, earmarked by the previous government, to 63 billion euros this year alone — in addition to the special 100 billion euro fund.

By these estimates, Germany is set to spend nearly 1 trillion euros over the next ten years to rearm itself, modernise its defence infrastructure, and recruit at least 100,000 additional soldiers. This would supplement the nearly 180,000 troops it currently has — the lowest troop count since 2018.

A recent report by Defence Commissioner Eva Högl, which painted a grim picture of the armed forces, helped justify such a significant budgetary hike and policy shift. According to the report, 28% of lower ranks and 20% of commissioned ranks remained unfilled at the end of last year.

In Högl’s words, the German armed forces suffer from “too little of everything”, suggesting a complete overhaul and fresh supply of personnel, equipment, and funds.

The ageing Bundeswehr presents another challenge. The average age of troops increased from 32.4 at the end of 2019 to 34 at the end of last year.

To encourage war-shy youths to join the armed forces, Högl proposed a compulsory “social year” with the Bundeswehr. Her report recommended reintroducing a form of national service, suspended since 2011.

Post-war Germany had discarded military ambitions due to its Nazi past. The country decided not to rearm in 1955 and instead prioritised economic development, especially after reunification in 1990, which brought fresh responsibilities to uplift the less developed eastern states.

Since then, Germany has maintained minimum defence capabilities. Its tank fleet was reduced from 4,000 in 1992 to just 340 in 2021.

According to a report by Berlin-based think tank, the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany’s military inventory has steadily declined since 2004. In 2021, it had 226 combat aircraft (down from 423), 339 battle tanks (down from 2,398), and 121 artillery howitzers (down from 878).

Though these numbers have increased slightly in recent years, they are still far from adequate given the shifting geopolitical situation.

The report noted that, at the current pace of procurement, “Germany would re-establish its 2004 capabilities in combat aircraft in about 15 years, in tanks in roughly 40 years — and in howitzers in only about one hundred years.”

The only political parties critical of the proposed rearmament are the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, the Left Party, and the far-right Alternative for Germany — all of which espouse pro-Russia policies and command significant support in the former East German states.

NATO chief Rutte’s recent speech in London has reinforced Germany’s concerns. “Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years,” he warned.

Germany is already assessing its ageing bunkers, many of which date back to the world wars and are now decrepit. Of the 2,000 or so bunkers that once existed, only 580 remain— most of them unusable — and can accommodate barely 5% of the country’s 83 million people.

Historically, post-war Germany has shunned the notion of “war”, even when participating in NATO operations. For instance, during its deployment in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks, German politicians called it a “stabilisation mission” rather than a war.

But such hesitations seem to be a thing of the past. The current government appears determined to build a powerful military in step with the times — especially in light of Russia’s expanding threat from the eastern flank.

Scholz’s now-famous “Zeitenwende” (“turning point”) speech, delivered in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has taken on renewed significance as Germany and NATO reassess the dangers posed by a heavily armed Russia — a country that can count on support from China and North Korea.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Berlin.)