Trump whisperer? Italy's Meloni navigates a high-stakes relationship

Rome: He hails a fantastic woman sweeping all before her in Europe. She praises a strong and shrewd defender of the West. Donald Trump and Giorgia Meloni are fast forging a new transatlantic "special relationship".

Italian Prime Minister Meloni was the sole European leader at Trump's presidential inauguration on Monday, an honour that came barely two weeks after she flew to Florida to meet him at his Mar-a-Lago retreat, and propelled her into pole position to become Washington's new go-to ally in Europe.

"Trump has chosen her for credibility, reliability and for the stability of our government as the preferred interlocutor in the EU," Italian Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli, a member of Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, told Reuters.

"This is useful for Italy and will also be useful for the EU."

Indeed, in theory, Meloni has much to benefit by being in Trump's good books. NATO member Italy has a big trade surplus with the United States and a diminished defence budget, putting her on a collision course with the new administration, unless she can leverage her ties with the president to deflect this.

But aligning herself too closely with the mercurial American commander-in-chief also carries potential dangers. Meloni has worked hard to convince Brussels she is a reliable partner and could undermine her standing if she blatantly promotes Italian interests at the expense of the rest of the 27-nation bloc.

"Meloni is actually in a very awkward position," said Francesco Galietti, founder of political risk firm Policy Sonar.

"She hopes that having Trump's ear will prove valuable, but she risks isolating herself in Europe, while having no guarantees that she can shield Italy from threatened American tariffs or blowback for the underwhelming defence spending."

In less than 10 years, Meloni has gone from being the leader of a marginalized, ultranationalist party, to head of one of the most stable governments in post-war Italian history, serving as a bridge between far-right and conservative factions in Europe.

The election of Trump, a natural ideological partner, has given her the opportunity to play a similar role on a much bigger stage - one that has seen the emergence of powerful personal alliances between leaders such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan in the 1980s who cemented what is widely termed the "special relationship" between Britain and America.

"Italy will always be committed to consolidating the dialogue between the United States and Europe, as an essential pillar for the stability and growth of our communities," Meloni said in a statement after applauding Trump's swearing-in.

Despite Meloni's move away from her far-right roots, some analysts in Rome who have followed her meteoric rise believe her deep-rooted eurosceptic instincts will prevail.

"Thinking that she's going to do things in Europe's interest and be the Trump whisperer is totally naive," said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Italian international relations think-tank Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI).

"She will always instinctively opt for national interests rather than European interests."

Trump: Meloni is a fantastic woman

Trump and Meloni have showered each other with praise since the president sealed his return to the White House.

"This is very exciting. I'm here with a fantastic woman," Trump said during Meloni's visit to Mar-a-Lago this month. "She's really taken Europe by storm."

Meloni, for her part, has insisted the U.S. president-elect will defend Western interests and said his geopolitical skills could force Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table to resolve the Ukraine conflict.

"Trump has the ability to balance diplomacy and deterrence," she said after her Florida trip.

Potentially, Italy has much to lose from a Trump presidency, especially from his threat to reverse the U.S. trade deficit with the European Union, possibly through hiked excise tolls.

The G7 member state registered a 42.1 billion euro ($43.6 billion) trade surplus with the United States in 2023, according to the EU statistics office, the second-highest in the bloc after Germany, making it especially vulnerable to tariffs.

Italian newspapers have said Meloni will look to use her alliance with Trump to deflect tax hikes away from local firms, such as its food producers. Meloni's office refused to comment on such speculation, but analysts say Italy would still suffer, even if Trump directed his ire elsewhere.

"The Italian economy is so tied to the European economy that thinking tariffs could only penalize France or Germany without hurting us is an illusion," said Arturo Varvelli, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations in Rome.

"Meloni knows this, so for better or worse, she will have to represent Europe's interests to Trump," he added.

A senior EU official in Brussels, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was not yet clear that Trump wanted to build any bridges to Europe, with or without Meloni. Another official said Meloni's friendship with Trump would be valuable if she can persuade him to stick by Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The White House didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on relations between Trump and Meloni.

Meloni: Elon musk is a precious genius

Meloni is also close to billionaire Elon Musk, who has emerged as a key mover and shaker in the president's inner circle, and the pair have engaged in a flurry of praise.

Musk described Meloni as "someone who is even more beautiful inside than outside" at a black-tie event in New York in September last year, for example, prompting the Italian leader to reply that the entrepreneur was a "precious genius".

Meloni's government has entered into talks to sign a possible five-year contract with Starlink, part of the Musk empire, worth 1.5 billion euros. Italian officials say the nation's military and diplomats need secure satellite communications of the type offered by Starlink and cannot wait until 2030, when a rival European system IRIS2 is expected to go on line.

"The government says this deal isn't detrimental to Europe, but it's clear that if you spend 1.5 billion on Starlink, you won't walk away from it in five years to join IRIS," said IAI's Tocci. "This is a very obvious example of Meloni putting national interests above European interests."

A Starlink contract would provide a small boost to Italian defence spending, but nowhere near enough to satisfy Washington.

While NATO has said the military budget of member states should total 2% of national output, Trump has called for this to jump to 5%. In Italy, spending is hovering around 1.5%, with the country's huge debt mountain preventing any additional splurge.

Policy Sonar's Galietti said he didn't believe Washington would accept the sort of vague pledges that Rome has offered over the past decade to lift spending.

"We will not deliver on our promises and just being Trump's bestie isn't going to help Meloni on this one."