Karnataka assembly election win strengthens Congress's position as head of Opposition

Winning Karnataka with seats double than that of its nemesis BJP is a much needed morale booster for the Congress, which could now assert that it is the natural leader of the Opposition bloc in the run up to the 2024 election.

The BJP is dejected at this rout but is putting up a brave face, as it likes to treat it as a one-off defeat with little consequences elsewhere.

For the Congress, the Karnataka result is also serving as an encouragement as it heads to electoral battles in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the year-end. Congress and Opposition leaders believe Karnataka is a trailer for an Opposition onslaught in the future and time has started for the slide of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP.

The Congress showed its doubting allies that it can defeat the BJP in a direct fight, second time in seven months. However, the question will be whether it can do it in north Indian states.
The BJP’s opponents think that the decisive Karnataka results shatters the invincibility myth built around Modi convincingly, as his campaign could not salvage a sinking ship as expected by local leaders.

Track live updates

The BJP usually presents a silver lining in all its setbacks with Modi bringing in some positives to a lost cause.

Karnataka win alone would put the Congress or the Opposition on a pedestal. This could give a further fillip to their efforts in the three big north Indian states where the Congress is in a direct fight with the BJP and could even win like it did five years ago.

But that does not guarantee a victory in 2024, if one takes the 2018 example when Congress managed to win the three states and form a government in Karnataka with JD(S) even when BJP had emerged as the single largest party. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP improved its tally to return to power riding on Modi’s charisma.

The question now is whether Modi retains this charisma now and that will be in question for the next one year. Modi still attracts crowds and votes for the BJP and remains the towering leader and it would still remain a humongous task for the Opposition to counter him.

While there could be similarities to 2018, the Congress and the Opposition have some advantages. Unlike five years ago, there is a unity of purpose in the Opposition and it has started earnest efforts to fight the BJP regime.

They are not stuck on the issue of who will lead and at least have indicated they are willing to compromise or sit back for an ally. For example, AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal, who fought the Congress tooth and nail in Gujarat and did damage it, did not campaign in Karnataka despite he and his party going gung-ho earlier.

What an emphatic win in Karnataka will do to Congress is not known but so far. Congress has indicated its willingness to play as part of a team within the Opposition.

Karnataka results are also an eye-opener for the non-BJP bloc in future elections – it designed its campaign at local level, enforced collective leadership and set the agenda rather than following BJP’s.

Another thing that the Karnataka results show is the limit of the BJP campaign on double engine government. It floundered in Himachal Pradesh too.

Congress General Secretary (Communications) Jairam Ramesh said, "it is now certain that the Congress has won and the Prime Minister has lost. The BJP had made its election campaign a referendum on the Prime Minister and on Karnataka getting his 'ashirwaad'. That has been decisively rejected."

BJP IT Cell head Amit Malaviya does not want to read too much into the verdict and said, "don't think people will not vote for us in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh."