Senior American leaders and their Chinese counterparts witnessed acerbic exchanges last week following reports by the US intelligence agencies that Russia had asked China for specific weapons and economic assistance to aid its war effort against Ukraine. Russian and Chinese officials denied the reports, but US President Joe Biden took up this matter with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a telephone conversation on March 18.
Biden described the "implications and consequences" if China provided material support to Russia in this war (details of consequences were not spelt out). Xi asked President Biden to have a direct conversation with Russia saying that conflict and confrontation were not in anyone's interest.
Biden tried to soften his tough talk by reiterating that the US did not seek a new Cold War or changes in China's system (change of regime), a stronger alliance against China, Taiwan's "secessionism" or conflict with China. Xi said that he took these remarks seriously but complained that the US side had not followed through on the "important understandings" reached earlier (a reference to high-level visits and security assistance provided by the US to Taiwan).
Chinese officials and foreign policy experts say that Washington still viewed China as its "biggest strategic competitor". It had taken various measures to contain China's influence by imposing a range of sanctions and tariffs on the provision of technologies and trade with China and criticised her unfairly on denial of human rights to the Uighurs in Xinjiang, democratic rights and freedoms to the people of Hong Kong.
Russia is China's strategic partner and assisting her in challenging the unfair US-dominated global order. The Ukraine war has forced the US to pay attention to security in Europe, giving China valuable time to build up its forces. A strong partnership with Russia will provide her continuous supply of oil, gas and food in its rivalry against the US. China enjoys an edge over the US in conventional forces in its near region. If the latter were to use its nuclear threat against China, Beijing could depend upon Russia's vast nuclear arsenal. The Sino-Russian partnership has stood the test of time and is rock solid. China will be truly isolated without Russia when the Ukraine crisis is over. China should not go back to the old days of having the US and Russia as two adversaries simultaneously.
Ukraine conflict is the outcome of the wrong policies of the US in ignoring the legitimate security concerns of Russia and driving NATO's eastward expansion. China cannot undo the mistake made by the US in leaving out Russia in the construction of the European security architecture.
The Chinese authorities have encouraged the pro-Russian propaganda on its mainstream media while censoring the social media of posts too critical of Russia. This was necessary to portray the correctness of Xi's "no limits" relationship with Russia forged last month. As the war resulted in killings and displacement of millions of people and massive destruction of civilian infrastructure, China became more muted in its support to Russia abstaining on some resolutions at the UN to convey its neutrality and support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Besides political interests, China has strong economic, scientific and technological ties with both Russia and Ukraine. China is Russia's biggest trading partner, and in 2019, China bought 14.3 per cent of Russia's exports, about $58 billion and shipped 22 per cent of Russia's imports, about $47 billion. Main products exported by Russia to China include crude oil, gas, and food items, military equipment whereas China exported manufactured goods, electronic and communications equipment. While Russia has sold S-400 air defence systems, Su-35 fighter aircraft, Kilo-class submarines to China, it has avoided the sale of ground combat systems, strategic bombers and land-attack missiles for fear of potential use against Moscow later.
China has been a big buyer of military equipment from Ukraine, including turbofan engines for aircraft, diesel engines for tanks, gas turbines for destroyers and air-to-air missiles for its J-11 aircraft. In 1998, China bought an incomplete hulk of a Soviet aircraft carrier from Ukraine, commissioned in 2012 as its first aircraft carrier, Liaoning. China's trade with Ukraine amounted to $15.37 billion (2020), exports of $7.12 bn and imports of $8.25 billion. Since 2020, Ukraine has been an important transit hub for China's rail services with Europe.
While China has publicly opposed the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and other countries calling these "outrageous and unilateral", which would force a nuclear power like Russia into a corner, Chinese companies and banks have been quietly complying. Two of China's biggest banks, the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have restricted financing and purchasing of Russian commodities since sanctions were imposed. China will continue to buy oil, gas, wheat and other items from Russia like other countries.
Another critical concern for Beijing is how the war in Ukraine will affect its global trade and its economic and technological cooperation with the US and Europe. The soaring commodity prices are squeezing the Chinese businesses already facing weak global demand. China faces several domestic challenges, such as frequent outbreaks of Covid and slowing economic growth. Its leader Xi Jinping, seeking an unprecedented third term as president later this year, craves stability to project the image of a strong country under his leadership.
Even though the scale of the Russian assault on Ukraine has unsettled the Chinese leadership, China will continue to maintain its entente with Moscow as it sees little hope of improvement of ties with Washington. At the same time, it will try to avoid provoking the West by supplying military weapons to Russia or violating the sanctions, at least openly.
(Yogesh Gupta is a former ambassador)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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