JOIN USIs Covid-19 Modi’s Bofors moment?
Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh had told columnist Sheela Bhatt that whenever Narendra Modi’s downfall comes, it will be sudden and steep.
The question is: Can the Covid-19 catastrophe unsettle Modi in a way Ramesh had predicted? This is something only time, rather the outcome of the Assembly polls of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, can indicate.
At the core of Modi’s strength is the massive mandate he won in 2019. In 2014, for the first time after 1984 and much like Rajiv Gandhi, Modi mustered a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha.
But Modi’s similarity with Rajiv does not end in winning a huge mandate and cultivating the image of charismatic leadership. Modi, like him, has become a leitmotif of an agenda of change.
A cursory look at Rajiv’s tenure as prime minister (1984-89) confirms Ramesh’s formulation that even with a colossal mandate, popularity notwithstanding, the downfall can be sudden and steep.
Rajiv’s 1984 electoral victory, days after the tragic assassination of his mother Indira Gandhi, was spectacular and unprecedented (much more than Modi’s 2014 or 2019 performances). Under him, the Congress had won 49.2 per cent of total votes and 52 per cent of the votes cast in 485 seats it had contested on its own. The Congress had captured 79 per cent of seats in the Lok Sabha.
As author SS Gill wrote in his book, “The Dynasty –A Political Biography of the Premier Ruling Family of Modern India (1996),” Rajiv had the advantage of viewing the Indian political system as an outsider. He conveyed an impression of being an open-minded, fair and receptive person who was eager to deliver results. The initial perception was that Rajiv could do no wrong.
However, by 1987, nothing seemed to be going right for the prime minister. Scandals exploded, shattering his image of “Mr Clean” to smithereens. Fairfax, Bofors and HWD Submarine deal, unlocking Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid and Shah Bano flip-flop exposed Rajiv’s political naivety and his proclivity to shoot himself in the foot.
On April 16, 1987, Swedish Radio made a startling disclosure broadcasting details of bribes it alleged had been paid to Indian politicians to clinch the $600 million Bofors gun deal. Suddenly, Rajiv’s government was under scrutiny. In each deal that the Rajiv government signed, an Italian connection was probed.
When Rajiv dropped Arun Singh as defence minister, gossip mills began working overtime. The two Doon school buddies reportedly fell out over Bofors as Singh favoured cancellation of the deal once the charges of a kickback gained credence, but Rajiv overruled him saying this would lower the country’s image among international arms manufacturers.
When Rajiv was in power, his lifestyle came under scrutiny. His love for designer shoes, fast cars and expensive items became hot subjects of discussion and debate. In New Delhi, for the first time, the prime minister was seen driving himself, and in a swanky Mercedes-Benz gifted by Jordan’s King Hussein. Mani Shankar Aiyar, a foreign service bureaucrat-turned-politician, had another explanation for why people, particularly mediapersons, considered Rajiv a yuppie.
“Perhaps they do not like to see a man born with a silver spoon in his mouth turn it into gold,” he said.
Rajiv also drew criticism for his cherished annual holidays, when he used to pursue his interest in photography and wildlife. Much before he entered politics, Rajiv and Sonia used to regularly vacation in Italy and India. During Christmas and New Year, the entire family, including Sonia’s mother, her sisters and their husbands, used to get together.
The practice continued when Rajiv became Prime Minister. Sonia’s mother and sisters went to Kanha National Park in Madhya Pradesh in 1985 with Rajiv, Sonia, Priyanka and Rahul. Next year, it was Ranthambore, where reigning film actress Sridevi performed before a select audience. The media lapped up the event. In a poor country, the chief executive was not expected to have a good time.
The Bofors scandal also impacted Rajiv’s friendship with megastar Amitabh Bachchan. Bachchan had joined politics and won from Allahabad in 1984, defeating Hemwati Nandan Bahugana, a political heavyweight.
According to ML Fotedar, Bachchan used to wield a great deal of clout during his stint as a Member of Parliament.
In his memoirs, Fotedar said, “I was also getting reports about Amitabh’s interference in the appointment and transfer of officers in the ministries.”
He added how many senior Congress party leaders had complained about the actor’s “interference in administrative matters.”
“Allahabad is a place of academicians, intellectuals, judges and lawyers. However, Amitabh gave charge of his constituency to a person who people did not take seriously,” wrote Fotedar.
Fotedar wrote that he “never reported to Rajivji about Amitabh’s functioning,” although the actor, it seems, persisted in interfering not only in the governance of Uttar Pradesh (a Congress-ruled state at the time) , but even in that of other states like “Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra.”
When the superstar’s name was dragged in the Bofors scandal, Bachchan resigned from Parliament in a huff, miffed at being accused of acting like a middleman. Bachchan fought for his honour and won a protracted legal battle to clear his name. However, his parting with Rajiv singularly contributed to his downfall. The Allahabad Lok Sabha by-elections in 1987 gave the fragmented opposition a sense that together they could humble the Congress which held 413 MPs in the 542-member Lok Sabha.
Rajiv’s life came to an abrupt end barely three months after he and Sonia celebrated their twenty-third wedding anniversary on February 25, 1991. The couple had a quiet dinner in a restaurant in Tehran.
A week before that, Sonia was in Amethi when Rajiv decided to launch a diplomatic initiative to end the Gulf War. Rajiv was extremely keen to take Sonia along. A special aircraft was sent to fetch her.
“He was extremely edgy as there was some delay in Sonia’s arrival. She got only a few hours to pack her bags but managed to accompany Rajiv,” a Rajiv associate had recalled then.
Incidentally, Rajiv visited Amethi for the last time in April 1991, and Sonia was with him. Rajiv told his constituents, “It may not be possible for me to come (again). But Sonia will be there to look after you.”
Returning to the political question raised by Ramesh about the possibility of the steep decline of Modi, political observers feel Rahul Gandhi, Congress and the combined opposition would need to create an opportunity the way VP Singh had during the Allahabad Lok Sabha by-polls.
In 2017, the Congress under Rahul’s leadership had a chance to create an opening. The occasion was the Assembly polls in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state Gujarat. Rahul and the Congress fought a valiant battle, putting up a credible performance; the absence of an outright victory in Gujarat Assembly polls denied Rahul a chance to emerge as a national alternative to Narendra Modi.
Amid the Covid-19 crisis and the Modi government’s inept handling of medicine, oxygen, ICU beds availability, large-scale deaths in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, the opposition again has a chance to take on Modi in 2022 Assembly polls of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
(Rasheed Kidwai is a journalist and author. He is a visiting fellow with the Observer Research Foundation.)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.