Of tactful politicos and weak heirs
Last week was marked by hectic political activities that led to the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi government in Maharashtra. However, the collapse of Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray was more striking than the fall of the government itself. A revolt against Thackerays in the Shiv Sena was unimaginable till recently.
The party, founded and ruled by Bal Thackeray, crumbled in less than three years after coming to power. In these years, Uddhav Thackeray tried to reorient the party's narrative by aligning with the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and breaking away from its Hindutva ally the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Clearly, the party's DNA did not accept the radical change that Uddhav tried to bring in.
A close look at the evolving politics of parties led by Generation Next shows varied approaches and outputs when the baton is passed on to the succeeding generation. Most have failed to keep a steady voter base unlike their predecessors.
The lack of grassroots experience and the failure to keep pace with the changing social dynamics are said to be the key stumbling blocks for the dynastic inheritors.
Power politics
Since 2014, the politics of India has changed dramatically. According to former Congress spokesperson Sanjay Jha, younger political inheritors seem to lack the hunger to win, having tasted power early without substantial investment. They are unable to cope with the long, hard grind of transactional politics and mass mobilisation.
In Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) got a rude shock when its Lok Sabha seats took a nosedive. It lost the prestigious seats of Azamgarh and Rampur in the by-polls a few days back to the BJP.
The losses in by-polls have raised a question mark over the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav. Azamgarh was earlier represented by him and Rampur was the party's top Muslim leader Azam Khan's influence zone.
After Bahujan Samaj Party walked away with a substantial chunk of Muslim votes in the two seats, another question loomed– was Akhilesh losing hold of Muslim votes nurtured by his father Mulayam Singh Yadav?
In his bid to take SP beyond the ‘Yadav party’ tag by winning the favour of the Kurmis, Koiris and Mallahs, Akhilesh jumped from one to the other option, forging an alliance with the Congress in 2017, BSP in 2019 and later the SP-RLD umbrella alliance with smaller parties. But the efforts are in vain. Clearly, something is amiss.
Until a few years ago, Tejashwi Yadav, the son of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad Yadav, was dismissed as a political greenhorn.
It was a trial by fire for Tejashwi, a cricketer by passion, who was pushed into politics because of the imminent conviction of his father in a fodder scam case. The power transfer happened when RJD was in the Opposition.
He became the deputy chief minister in the Nitish Kumar government, and is now the only Opposition face contending for the seat of CM, despite several CBI and ED cases slapped on him.
Four of the five MLAs from Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) joined RJD recently, making the party the largest in Bihar. Yet, this does not mean Tejashwi has retained his father’s charm.
Political analyst Rasheed Kidwai feels the problem with the Generation Next politicians of RJD and SP is more due to the complex political dynamics of the states.
“And yes there is no denying the fact neither Tejashwi nor Akhilesh has had the deep drive and long experience of ground politics. Plus BJP has invested quite a lot in identity politics. The challenge before Akhilesh and Tejashwi is to retain Muslim votes besides taking back the OBC plank, not just Yadav votes. Earlier it was readily available to Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu Prasad. Now their heirs will have to toil hard as the BJP is out to prove that there is no monolithic OBC vote bank.”
Despite Akhilesh’s best attempt to blunt the angularities, the BJP was able to convince a large section of voters in the assembly polls months ago about lawlessness with Yadav domination as a hallmark of SP’s rule. In Bihar, Tejashwi Yadav’s ‘apology’ if any wrong committed during previous RJD regimes cut no ice with non-Yadav Hindi electorates. The continuing fear of Yadav hegemony put spokes in Tejashwi’s forward march.
The winners
In contrast, the political heirs in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have done well. Both states are being ruled by relatively young leaders who inherited party control after being groomed by their fathers. M K Stalin, son of M Karunanidhi and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, son of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy seem firmly in control.
When the Congress denied Jagan Mohan Reddy the chief-ministership of the state after the demise of his father in September 2009, Jagan walked out of the party and took out Odarpu Yatra to garner people’s support. He then founded his own party Yuvajana Shramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) in 2011, and powered it to victory in 2019, in Lok Sabha as well as assembly polls, while also battling corruption cases.
The story is similar with Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu. M Karunanidhi was a political craftsman who wielded power till his last breath. Though he never made any formal announcement, Karunanidhi groomed his younger son M K Stalin to take over the mantle.
Stalin was mocked as “unlucky” and “unsuited” for the top post in the state after he failed to deliver in three elections – 2011, 2014, and 2016.
However, his strident anti-BJP stand, a weak AIADMK after the death of J Jayalalithaa and a strong alliance with the Congress and other like-minded parties helped Stalin emerge as a leader when the DMK alliance won 38 out of 39 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 elections.
In 2021, Stalin not just propelled the DMK to power after a decade but improved the party’s performance by winning 133 seats. DMK formed a government on its own for the first time in 25 years.
Despite being challenged by his elder brother M K Alagiri, Stalin did take control of DMK after a seamless transition.
In Karnataka, Janata Dal (Secular) supremo H D Devegowda’s successor H D Kumaraswamy was successful in the beginning. Devegowda, who had become the prime minister during the United Front’s reign between 1996-97, handed over the baton of state politics to his son Kumaraswamy.
But the party, after being buffeted from one extreme to the other, is losing steam. In 2018, Kumaraswamy said he committed a blunder by aligning with the BJP in 2006 which had led to criticism of Devegowda’s secular credentials. However, his alliance with the Congress in 2018 to “wash off the stain” was short-lived.
In 2004 Assembly polls, JD(S) was at its peak winning 58 seats, which came down to 28 in 2008, a development seen as the result of political flip-flops Kumaraswamy.
The party’s popularity seems to be on the decline and the Congress has, by making prominent Vokkaliga face D K Shivakumar its state unit chief, reached out in a big way to the dominant community which has so far voted massively for JD(S).
The problem
And then there are other challenges that come with legacy. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Lalu Prasad and Bal Thackeray founded their parties and were their unchallenged leaders while the inheritors have faced challenges from others to own the legacy.
Before Eknath Shinde, Raj Thackeray (later founded MNS) challenged Uddhav’s control in Maharashtra. In UP, Akhilesh was challenged by his own uncle Shiv Pal Yadav while RJD’s Tejashwi faced on and off rebellion from his brother Tej Pratap Yadav.
This is in addition to the “dynastic politics” attack from the BJP, which has sought to build a narrative of a ‘party of workers’ as its top leaders in these regions do not have this ‘inheritance’ baggage.
Every generation has obviously a bigger challenge to prove in these states. While nationally Congress leader Rahul Gandhi finds it difficult to get the acceptability and the appeal of his predecessors, it is more angular in states. For instance, Aaditya Thackeray may find the going tougher than Uddhav. Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule and nephew Ajit Pawar are no match for senior Pawar, feel political observers.
(With inputs from ETB Sivapriyan in Chennai and Mrityunjay Bose in Mumbai)
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