Favourable monsoon forecast raises hopes in Karnataka

Lessons from the past and new tools at the disposal of the state government will be key this southwest monsoon season, which in recent years has been characterised by extreme events causing extensive damages.

With expectations riding high on the agriculture sector again -- it was the only sector to record a positive year-on-year growth in the pandemic-hit 2020 -- a favourable monsoon forecast has raised hopes among farmers.

Speaking to DH, Karnataka State Disaster Management Authority’s (KSDMA) senior consultant G S Srinivasa Reddy says that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) will share a spatial distribution map of rainfall, along with monthly forecasts during the southwest monsoon. “These will help us in assessing flood-risk areas at the beginning of the month itself and prepare for extreme weather events better,” he says.

The spatial distribution map will be shared with states for the first time, something Karnataka has been seeking for the past few years, according to Reddy. “Conditions in both the Pacific and Indian Ocean are promising for a good monsoon. Forecasts currently indicate well-distributed rainfall throughout the peninsula. There will be normal rainfall for 75% of Karnataka, while it is likely to be below normal in Kolar, Tumakuru, Bengaluru Urban and Bengaluru Rural districts,” he says.

Extreme events

Karnataka has suffered flooding for three consecutive years - 2018, 2019 and 2020.

G S Bhat, Chairman, Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, IISc, says that despite the forecast there will be spatial and temporal variations. “A normal monsoon season does not mean there are no extreme events. Such events are part of the monsoon system,” he said.

Predicting the magnitude of rainfall in a region is difficult, despite accurate rainfall forecast for a two-week period. However, the practice of reservoir management between states and an early alert system will help in reducing damages during extreme events.

The devastating floods in 2019 were largely caused due to the sudden release of water to the Krishna river from upstream reservoirs in Maharashtra. Both Karnataka and Maharashtra have agreed to monitor water levels at reservoirs, with an eye on forecasts, to avoid sudden release of water from dams during periods of heavy rainfall.

“Last year, too, we faced a crisis at the same time. We have some experience of dealing with it now,” KSDMA commissioner Manoj Rajan says, adding that a detailed plan is being prepared for the monsoon season to reduce the impact of extreme events on agriculture and the local population.

Sowing

The Covid-19 surge is unlikely to affect the monsoon sowing pattern in the state, Rajan says.

According to Reddy, the KSDMA senior consultant, good pre-monsoon showers meant that sowing activity will pick up, especially in the South Interior Karnataka region. “Karnataka witnessed good sowing in both Kharif and Rabi season last year. This year, too, both pre-monsoon and monsoon conditions appear favourable,” he says.