Markets in ‘wait and watch’ mode during polls

The stock markets have been adopting a ‘wait and watch’ strategy as the country is going through nearly six-weeks of polling for the 17th Lok Sabha.

Since the day markets crossed the 39,000-mark on April 1 this year, the BSE Sensex has seen a decline of 1.3%. Since April 11, when the first phase polling began, the 30-share index has seen a decline of mere 0.1%, as the period has been marred with immediate profit-booking after every rally. This is contrary to about 2% increase in the corresponding period in 2014, when it was clear that Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi was headed for a clear majority.

Similarly, on the valuation side, the total market capitalisation of the BSE-listed companies has gone down by a mere 0.6% in the past fortnight, as the country gears up for the next government formation.

“Unlike 2014, this is not an open and shut election. There are probabilities of Modi not being the Prime Minister, as the Balakot effect has also worn off. So there are multiple combinations that marketshave been factoring in for right now. If you observe the trend, immediately after any gain, there is a profit-booking in the markets,” an analyst covering equity markets said.

Post-Pulwama attack on February 14, when markets were at 35,876 points, the BSE Sensex saw a rally last seen way back in 2007, as it raced around 3,500 points to touch 39,000-mark on the beginning of the current financial year.

After crossing 39,000-mark, most traders were banking on Modi’s increased ratings to help BSE Sensex tide over 40,000-mark for the first time in the history, in a couple of weeks. However, as the PM Modi’s ratings moderated with the start of the polling, so did the bull in the markets.

Experts across the platform expect this phenomenon to continue till May 23, the day when election results would be announced.

As a result, both foreign investors, as well as domestic investors, have also been wary of the trades in the markets. The foreign institutional investors have parked in a mere Rs 8,182.55 crore on a net basis in the Indian markets, which seems to be headed for a massive drop from Rs 33,000-odd crore parked by the FIIs during the entire March.

Similarly, DIIs have also sold a mere Rs 1,341.67 crore till now during the current month.