Gold prices set for 30% upside this year, say analysts

Gold prices, which have seen recurring record highs in recent trading sessions, are expected to continue their upward trend this year.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors provide strong support for gold, with domestic prices likely to hover above Rs 1,65,000 and potentially settle around Rs 1,80,000 per 10 grams, about 30% higher over the 2025 closing, in the coming months, according to various analysts.

On January 23, gold jumped Rs 1,500 to close at a record Rs 1,58,700 per 10 grams in Delhi, amid strong global trends and stockist buying.

The yellow metal gained momentum through 2025, closing at Rs 1,38,000 per 10 grams, showing a growth of 80% over Rs 76,748 in 2024, according to data available with Refinitiv and Angel One Research.

International gold prices rose over 6% this year after a 60-70% gain in 2025, marking one of the largest yearly increases in decades, according to the World Gold Council.

Analysts attribute the rally to uncertainty and the reliance on safe-haven assets. "The momentum and global chaos suggest the rally is likely to continue for at least six months," Prathamesh Mallya, DVP — Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One told DH.

"Though gold touched Rs 1.5 lakh per 10 grams, there is still room for further gains," Mallya said, adding that tariffs, geopolitical tensions, interest rate cuts, and central bank gold accumulation could push prices toward $5,500 per ounce (each ounce is 28.34 grams) internationally and Rs 1,72,000 per 10 grams domestically.

Gold is increasingly recognised as a core portfolio component. Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst — Commodities at HDFC Securities, said, "Investors now view gold as a resilient asset offering diversification, capital preservation, and risk-adjusted returns. The rally could extend further this year."

Macroeconomic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, trade tensions, inflation concerns, a soft US dollar, and volatility in equities and bonds reinforce gold’s safe-haven appeal.

Gandhi expects spot gold to reach $5,220-5,625 per ounce, and MCX gold to hit Rs 1,66,125-1,79,323 per 10 grams.

Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, noted that fiscal deficits, central bank demand, and a supportive real interest rate environment underpin gold’s strength.

"While interim consolidations are natural, gold remains well-positioned over the coming years. The next major target could be near $7,040 per ounce, indicating further upside. Gold behaves as a reliable long-term portfolio anchor rather than a short-term trade," he said.

"We expect over 20-25% upside in 2026, driven by central-bank buying, ETF inflows, Fed cuts, and geopolitical policy uncertainty. Accordingly, we see gold averaging $5,200-5,400 per troy ounce," Elara Capital Deputy Head of Research and Economist Garima Kapoor said.

In India, gold carries both cultural and investment significance. Deloitte India’s report, Go for Gold: A Winning Playbook for the Gems & Jewellery Industry, reveals that 86% of consumers consider gold as a preferred wealth-creation instrument, nearly matching market-linked products such as mutual funds and stocks (87%). Jewellery’s role is also evolving, with 56% viewing it as both investment and fashion, and 28% purely as investment.

A Bhima Gold spokesperson concluded, "Gold demand in India is tied to long-term savings and festive or wedding purchases, lending stability to demand cycles. Rather than focusing on specific price targets, a long-term perspective, trust, and disciplined purchasing matter more than short-term market fluctuations.”

Added Naresh Chetan, Co-founder & MD, Zaveri Bros Diamonds and Gold, "For retail customers, the need of the hour is purchasing gold during marriages and festivals. They will buy gold jewellery come what may."