IMD predicts subdued monsoon

“Don't expect much rain till the end of July first week though the monsoon trough will move forward in the north,” Ajit Tyagi, Director General of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) told Deccan Herald.

“Scattered rainfall activity is likely over central and northwest India. Subdued rainfall activity may continue over south interior peninsula,” IMD said in its outlook for the first week of July released here on Friday.

Even the northern march of the monsoon,this year, may turn out to be a feeble affair as both Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal arms of monsoon are likely to remain weak in the next 15 days and there is no sign of a depression in the Bay of Bengal to provide the necessary push to the sluggish monsoon currents.

Monsoon rainfall would be on the lower side in Gujarat, interior Maharashtra and south interior peninsula in the last week of June as well. The peninsula received copious rainfall in the first half of the monsoon season. But the sky had dried up in the recent weeks in the south. Last week (between June 16 and 22) almost the entire peninsula received either “scanty” or “deficient” rainfall resulting in 44 per cent rainfall deficiency.

The rainfall data for the entire season (June 1 - 22), however, gives a tad better picture because of the rainfall in the first half. The met agency had earlier predicted a below normal rainfall. If the monsoon experienced a lull in July, it could also spell trouble for agriculture as July is crucial for sowing paddy.

The southwest monsoon would advance over most parts of northwest India, including Delhi, in the next 4-5 days. But it would be scattered rainfall with thundershower rather than the regular heavy continuous monsoon rain. Only the west coast and the east and north-east may experience widespread rain in the next two weeks.

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