No monsoon yet, but it's raining

Coastal Karnataka, some N-K districts, and parts of Kerala receive heavy rain

Many districts of Coastal and North Karnataka received heavy rain with thunder storms on Monday, setting a much-awaited stage for the arrival of monsoon in the State.

The State Meteorological Department has said the monsoon will enter Karnataka in the next 24 hours and it has also issued heavy rainfall warning at isolated places over coastal Karnataka. The rainfall may exceed 65 mm during the next 48 hours, stated a note from the department.
 
Speaking to Deccan Herald, Bangalore Meteorological department Director B Puttanna said there are favourable conditions for the onset of monsoon in the state in the next 24 hours. However, it’s also a fact that the monsoon is yet to arrive in Kerala. Rainfall being witnessed in different parts of Karnataka on Monday is considered pre-monsoon showers. Puttanna also said monsoon may set in Kerala and Karnataka on Tuesday.  

In Delhi, India Meteorological Department Director-General Laxman Singh Rathore said: “Monsoon is round the corner. Parts of Kerala have been receiving rain since this morning. We may declare the onset of monsoon by Wednesday.”

Kerala usually receives monsoon showers by June 1. Rathore said there was no need to paint a gloomy picture as the progress of the seasonal rainfall phenomenon was well with the forecast limits which have a model error of four days.

A unique feature of this year’s monsoon will be its steady progress along the western coast bringing rain to coastal Kerala and leaving the peninsular region relatively dry. Current observations show central and northern Kerala receiving rainfall whileThiruvananthapuram getting little rain.
Weather watchers attribute the slight delay in the onset of monsoon to “Typhoon Mawar,” which was active in the western Pacific Ocean off the Philippines and sucking away moisture and wind currents to power itself.

“The typhoon has moved northward towards Japan and will no longer affect the progression of the monsoon,” Rathore said.

On the effect of El Nino conditions — warming of the Central Pacific — on the monsoon, he said it was too early to predict any adverse effect.

“At present, El Nino conditions are neutral,” he said indicating that it would not have much impact on the monsoon.

El Nino conditions could turn positive during August- September when the monsoon season draws to a close in India. Scientists said sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific were expected to rise by 0.5 degrees Celsius to 0.7 degrees Celsius. However, they pointed out that there was no co-relation between El Nino and the monsoon.

“In 1997, El Nino was at its highest with central Pacific sea temperatures rising by four degrees but India had a normal monsoon," Rathore said.

In 1997, the sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean were favourable for the monsoon which negated the adverse impact of El Nino.

The IMD declares the onset of monsoon over Kerala when 50 per cent of the 14 observation stations in the state and Lakshadweep islands report rainfall for 48 hours.

Monsoon rains are crucial for agriculture as only 40 per cent of the cultivable area is under irrigation. The farm sector contributes about only 15 per cent to the country's Gross Domestic Product, but it employs about 60 per cent of India's population. Rathore said deviation of three to four days in arrival of monsoon rains would have no adverse impact on sowing of kharif crops.

"There is no concern for paddy sowing because seedlings are raised first in nursery through irrigation and then transplanted in the field much later,” he said.

There may be no impact on cotton and sugarcane crops as these long-duration crops are mostly cultivated in areas with irrigation facilities.

On the back of good monsoon in 2010 and 2011, the country harvested a record grain production of 245 million tonnes and 252.56 million tonnes, respectively.