Emerging triangle

A new strategic triangle is in the making in the Indo-Pacific region. This region is slowly becoming part of the lexicon of international relations and was not recognised earlier by scholars and leaders as a geopolitical entity.

Like many other concepts of international politics, the term ‘Indo-Pacific’ is an American innovation. It was first used by US naval analysts a few years ago and it got legitimised in January 2012 when president Barak Obama’s strategy of ‘Pivot to Asia’ was released. This term is increasingly used in India now and even articles in the Chinese media have begun to use this term.

Indo-Pacific region encompasses the combined geographical body of land and waters consisting of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean and the adjacent littoral states. There were not many takers to this concept and it was considered a new American strategy to promote and protect American interests in the Indian Ocean region and the Asia-Pacific region.

While this perception is right, this new geographical construct also suits the interests of both China and India. India is the largest resident economic and military power in the Indian Ocean, but it does not want to confine its role just this region.

Since the early years of post-Cold War era, New Delhi has been consistently pursuing a ‘Look East’ policy to economically engage the Asia-Pacific countries. It has become a full dialogue partner of Asean, a member of the Asean regional forum, a founding member of the East Asia Summit and aspires to become a member of the Apec forum. From the Indian perspective Indo-Pacific concept combining the two oceans is a meaningful geopolitical idea.

China is undoubtedly the most dominant regional power in the Pacific both in economic and military terms. China’s new status in the globe is reflected in the fact that it has become the largest manufacturer, biggest exporter, top-most consumer of luxury goods and largest holder of foreign exchange in the world. China realises that this new status can be sustained only when it manages a steady flow of energy resources from West Asia and mineral resources from Africa through the waters of the Indian Ocean. India has been looking east, but China has in recent years intensely been engaged in looking west! From Chinese perspective, it makes complete sense to have combined strategy to promote the country’s national interest in the larger Indo-Pacific region.

The United States, China and India constitute the three important poles of the security and economic architecture of the Indo-Pacific region. The history of their mutual relations has not always been cooperative and constructive. China and the United States were allies during World War II, but were enemies during the Korean and Vietnam Wars. India and the United States had an acrimonious relationship throughout the Cold War era and politically clashed over arms sale to Pakistan, Kashmir and nuclear non-proliferation. Even India and China went for a brief war in 1962 sparking mutual suspicion for decades after that.

Emerging strategic partnership

But in more recent decades, there has been a paradigm shift in Sino-US, Indo-US and Sino-Indian relations. Today’s China-US relations are based on ‘mutual economic dependence.’

Trade, investment, joint ventures and even China’s huge purchase of US treasury bonds work as a powerful deterrence in their relationship. Similarly, India and the United States have moved a long way from ‘an estranged relationship’ to establishing ‘a strategic partnership’ since the early years of the 21st Century.

Trade and investment ties between the two countries have increased manifold and defence and security cooperation has intensified beyond imagination. Likewise, China-India relationship has flowered to an emerging strategic partnership with several rounds of dialogues to resolve the contentious boundary issues and bilateral trade has touched point where the US has lost its status to China as India’s biggest trade partner.

Coordination of policies at multilateral forums and beginning of military exercises at a modest level hold positive potential for improved cooperation between the two countries.
Thus the dominant paradigm of mutual relations among these three powers has truly transformed in the new millennium.     

However, the new paradigm of triangular ties is not without quandaries and predicaments. The economic slump in the US, reduced economic growth rate in China and India are bound to raise fresh problems and issues. When the economy does not get going, politics begins to bring cold tensions.

The US intends to wind down military interventions in West Asia and shift its pivot to Asia. President Obama’s visit to Asia, Hillary Clinton’s warnings on dangers to freedom of navigation in South China Sea, reinforcement of security ties with Thailand and the Philippines—two major non-Nato allies, and US-Vietnam civilian nuclear cooperation agreement have annoyed China. Beijing has responded by picking up quarrels with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines on maritime disputes and sovereignty issues.

The Indian naval chief has expressed the plans to deploy the navy, if needed, to protect Indian interests in South China Sea, while China has issued new passports depicting Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai-Chin as Chinese territories.

All these developments reflect cold tensions among the three polls of Asian strategic landscape that can assume dangerous proportions when economy gets worse. A new kind of Cold War threatens to visit the Indo-Pacific region that can affect the economic dynamism of the region. What is clearly required is a triangular transparent diplomatic engagement that can limit mutual misperceptions and enhance reciprocal trust.

(The writer is a professor at JNU,New Delhi)