BJP vote share nosedives, small gain for Cong

BJP vote share nosedives, small gain for Cong

BJP vote share nosedives, small gain for Cong

The vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which suffered a debacle in the May 5 Assembly elections, has declined by 13.38 percentage points.

According to the vote share of various political parties calculated by Deccan Herald based on votes secured by candidates as provided by the Election Commission, the Congress has secured a vote share of 36.87 per cent, the BJP 20.48 per cent , the Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) 20.23 per cent,  the Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) 9.9 per cent and the Badavara Shramikara Raitara (BSR) Congress 2.7 per cent.

The vote share is calculated for 223 of the 224 constituencies. The polling in the Periyapatna constituency will be held on May 28.

The Congress contested 222 seats,  BJP 221,  JD-S 220, KJP 216 and the BSR Congress 181.

The BJP has never experienced such a  negative swing. The BJP secured its highest-ever vote share of 33.86 per cent in 2008 bagging 110 seats. The negative swing of 13.38 percentage points has resulted in the party losing 70 seats. It may have repercussions on its electoral prospects for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Karnataka sent the highest number of BJP members  (19) to the Lok Sabha in the 2009 poll. Even in the 2004 Assembly elections, when the number of seats held by the Congress fell from 132 to 65, the decline in vote share was only 5.57 percentage points.

The Congress, which secured 121 seats in 2013, a gain of 41 compared to the 2008 Assembly polls, could improve its vote share by only 2.11 percentage points. The JD-S, which could improve its tally of seats from 28 in 2008 to 40 in 2013, has improved its  share by a meagre 1.27 percentage points.

It is apparent that the newly launched KJP,  could mobilise 30.69 lakh votes of the 3.09 crore votes.

It has not only eaten into the votes of the BJP but also that of the Congress and the JD-S. The BJP had to face the double whammy of not only facing the anti-incumbency factor but also the KJP eating into its votes.

The situation is a sort of repeat of what happened in 1994 when a chunk of the ruling Congress votes was weaned away by former chief minister S Bangarappa’s newly launched Karnataka Congress Party (KCP). The KCP had contested 218 seats bagging a vote share of 7.31 per cent.

The BJP and JD-S have secured an equal number of seats in the elections. If the vote share is a factor deciding the principal opposition party in the Assembly,  then the BJP will occupy the position because of its slightly higher vote share.

Total electorate: 4,36,52,706
Total votes polled: 3,09,91,625 (71.29%)

Party    Seats     Runner-up    Votes     Vote share in %
    Won        polled    (2008 vote share)

* Cong    121    63    1,14,25,141    36.87    (34.76)
* BJP    40    57    63,49,576    20.48    (33.86)
* JDS    40    49    62,69,907    20.23    (18.96)
* KJP    06    35    30,69,577    9.90       (-)
* BSR Cong    04    3    837867    2.7         (-)
*Others    12    16    3039557    9.82     (12.42)

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