JOIN USCracks are appearing in the Bashar al-Assad regime. Two high-profile defections last week, one of Brigadier General Manaf Tlass and the other of Syrian ambassador to Iraq Nawaf Fares, do not bode well for the government.
It indicates that there are serious differences within the government, grave enough for persons in key positions to walk out. Given Syria’s difficult relations with Iraq, only a close confidante of the President would have been appointed as an envoy to Baghdad. Thus Fares’ defection is not just an embarrassment for Assad, it is a great loss. As for General Tlaas he is the son of a former defence minister and a close friend of the President’s family. Hence, it is apparent that there are cracks not just in the government but in the President’s inner circle.
While it is too early to write off the Assad government, it does seem that the clear advantage it held over the opposition so far could be slowly dissipating. The opposition has announced that Fares’ defection is the first of many diplomatic crossovers that they expect in the coming days and weeks. While this could be an exaggeration aimed at pushing undecided individuals in the Assad regime to defect too, it is possible that a growing number of Syrian elite are beginning to see Assad as a captain of a sinking ship.
Meanwhile, western powers seem to heading towards military intervention in Syria. Rhetoric and accusations that we heard in the run-up to the US-led invasion of Iraq are being articulated again. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made a rather bellicose speech urging the United Nations to go in for regime change in Syria. American officials are accusing President Assad of moving chemical weapon stockpiles for use against the rebels.
The international community must not allow the west to invade and occupy yet another country. The Russians have dispatched a flotilla of ships to their naval base in Syria in an apparent show of support for President Assad. However, this show of military muscle alone is unlikely to deter the western powers.
Countries like India, Brazil, China, Russia and South Africa, indeed all countries that are opposed to the west’s repeated violation of international norms must come together to oppose military intervention. They must work not just in and with the UN to defeat the US plan but also, they should get the American and European people on their side. This can be done by drawing public attention to the enormous costs of invasion.