JOIN USThe monsoon, as it has been seen so far, has been a mixed event. While it set in early, progressed fast and covered most parts of the country in quick time, it also triggered one of the worst natural disasters in the country’s history by causing flash floods in Uttarakhand.
Uttarakhand received about seven times as much rainfall as it usually receives during the monsoon. Excessive rains caused landslides, but the land use policy and wrong constructions were mainly responsible for the high scale of the disaster. Other parts of the country received copious rains. Normally it takes about six weeks for the entire country to be covered by the monsoon. But this year most parts of the country experienced fairly good monsoon rainfall in the first two weeks after its onset. In the same period last year there was a shortfall in the expected rainfall.
Many areas have received much more rains than normal and the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of a better than normal monsoon may come true. Reports of flooding have started coming in from some areas. The planting of kharif crops has progressed well without a complaint about shortage of rain or the availability of inputs. Most reservoirs are also full and power production is set to improve. This augurs well for the economy which needs a boost from agricultural and power production. If the kharif crops are good, as they are likely to be, there is bound to be a major relief on the inflation front. The higher purchasing power in the rural sector may increase consumption and improve the fortunes of many sectors, including manufacturing.
But a midseason stocktaking of the monsoon is beset with uncertainties too. Last year also the monsoon had made an early impact, though not as quickly as this year. But the rainfall weakened in July and early August, though there was a bouncing back in late August and September. The erratic behaviour caused harm and agricultural output actually fell by five per cent. This year the IMD has predicted that the rainfall in July may be normal, though there may be a shortfall in September. The monsoon has frequently gone against IMD’s predictions. It happened last year also. But everyone, including the government which is in an election year, will hope that the good run of the rain will continue.