The three scenarios in J&K

Three distinct scenarios have emerged following the outcome of the Assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir with the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) talking of examining “all options” to form a government.

In the first scenario, the PDP forms the government in alliance with the BJP and Sajjad Lone’s People’s Conference (PC). PDP patron Mufti Mohammad Sayeed may get a full term with a BJP legislator from Jammu as his deputy or Sayeed and a BJP MLA from Jammu may share the post of the chief minister for three years each out of the six-year term.

The PDP and the BJP, however, are ideological and regional opponents and they do not see eye-to-eye on almost all issues. The other possibility is that instead of a BJP legislator from Jammu, Lone may become the deputy chief minister or even chief minister for three years, political analysts said.

In the second scenario, the PDP will form the government with outside support from the Congress. They may also need the support of a few independents.  In the previous coalition, the PDP and the Congress did not get along but this time the Congress may extend support just to keep the BJP out of power.

In the third scenario, the BJP and PC can form the government with the support of the NC and others.  Since the mandate is against the NC, it may not join the government but could give outside support. In this situation, a legislator from Jammu region or Lone could head the coalition.