Govt projects 7.4% growth this year; Q3 GDP pegged at 7.5%

Economy is likely to grow at a faster pace of 7.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 6.9 per cent in 2013-14, according to government's advance estimates for GDP based on the new calculation methodology.

The data further said economy grew by 7.5 per cent in the September-December quarter of the current fiscal after a growth rate of 8.2 per cent in the preceding quarter.

"Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs 106.57 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2013-14 of Rs 99.21 lakh crore, released on 30th January 2015.

"The growth rate in GDP during 2014-15 is estimated at 7.4 per cent as compared 6.9 per cent in 2013-14," the Central Statistics Office (CSO) said.

The sectors which registered a growth rate of over 7 per cent are financial, real estate and professional service; trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting; public administration, defence and other services; and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services.

Growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining and quarrying; construction and manufacturing' is estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively.

The government had recently updated the base year to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 2011-12 from 2004-05.

The data further showed that GDP at current prices in 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs 126.54 lakh crore, up 11.5 per cent from Rs 113.45 lakh crore in 2013-14.

The per capita net national income during 2014-15 is estimated to be Rs 88,538, up 10.1 per cent as compared to Rs 80,388 during 2013-14 with the growth rate of 12.3 per cent.

At constant prices, the per capita income (at 2011-12 prices) during 2014-15 is likely to attain a level of Rs 74,193 as compared to Rs 69,959 in 2013-14. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.1 per cent as against the previous estimate of 5.4 per cent.

The Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from Rs 91.70 lakh crore in 2013-14 to Rs 98.58 lakh crore in 2014-15, according to the data.

The estimated growth in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, electricity, gas and water supply, and construction is estimated to be 6.8 per cent, 2.3 per cent, 9.6 per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively during 2014-15 as compared to growth of 5.3 per cent, 5.4 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, in 2013-14.

In the third quarter of the fiscal, growth in agricultural sector contracted by 0.4 per cent as against a growth of 3.8 per cent in the corresponding period last year.

Mining and quarrying sector too expanded at a slower rate of 2.9 per cent as compared to 4.2 per cent as against 4.2 per cent in third quarter of last fiscal.

Manufacturing too slowed to 4.2 per cent as against a growth of 5.9 per cent registered year-on-year.

Financial, real estate and professional services segment grew by 15.9 per cent in third quarter, a much faster pace than the similar period last year.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs 36.13 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against Rs 33.68 lakh crore in 2013-14.

At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs 31.76 lakh crore in 2014-15 as against Rs 30.50 lakh crore in 2013-14.

In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2014-15 are estimated at 28.6 per cent and 29.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 29.7 per cent and 30.7 per cent, respectively in 2013-14.

"The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 7.3 per cent at current prices and 4.1 per cent at constant prices," the data said.