Delhi poll debacle forces BJP to stay put with Akalis

A noticeable effect on Punjab’s political canvas after the formidable victory of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Delhi elections has been the adjournment of what appeared like an ‘imminent’ split between long coalition partners – the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and the BJP in Punjab. The compulsions of coalition may have been preferred as a second option by political outfits and the one in Punjab that has existed for decades is no exception.

The saffron party in its recent political adventures, post Narendra Modi’s coronation as the prime minister, of ‘dumping’ allies in a calculated attempt to find its own feet in states with lesser or waning political clout, incited a sudden streak of misgivings and badmouthing between the ruling alliance partners in Punjab. Much of this was construed as a ‘BJP game plan’. That systematic manoeuvring by the BJP on to the path of a possible split between SAD-BJP has now altered course. The Delhi poll outcome appears to have reset the political alignment between alliance partners in Punjab.

Its drubbing in the Delhi polls has made the BJP in Punjab cagey of its ambitions to project itself as a durable, self-determining political alternative out of the fold of its long standing alliance partner Akali Dal. The myth of ‘Modi invincibility’ having now come under the scanner and the Punjab saffron party sees its coexistence with the Akali Dal as a far viable option than testing waters on its own, at least for now. The sudden rhetoric over possible alliance break-up is now considerably mellowed down- one thing that the SAD will be grateful to the AAP.

When the Punjab assembly elections take place in Punjab in 2017, the incumbent alliance would have lived a decade of anti-incumbency. The fact remains that the BJP has played second fiddle to its senior alliance partner SAD. The Punjab BJP, in its perceived ambition to part ways with the Dal, also hoped to get rid of this anti-incumbency if it projected itself as a political alternative. With this, it would have offloaded much of the baggage having Akali Dal as ally.

The state BJP will now have to wait for a more opportune moment to strike. But the ruling incumbents in Punjab, and even the opposition Congress, have more reasons to worry. After Delhi, Punjab is the one state which the AAP is seriously considering to expand its political clout. The AAP leaders see Punjab as the most conducive turf as part of its natural political progression.

And why not? When the AAP drew a blank across the country in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Punjab was the only state which returned AAP, giving it four MPs. It gained in 34 of the 117 assembly segments, 18 of which were the ones which had the SAD supremacy.

Political analyst Sanjiv Panday, talking to Deccan Herald said, “The electorate in Punjab have been choosing regimes that largely shuffled between the SAD and the Congress. The Punjab Lok Sabha results manifested the enormous legroom for a political alternative in the form of AAP, which touched the right chord to connect with the people.”

Anti-incumbency
Incumbents in Punjab face anti-incumbency of 10 years in power, Panday said, adding that political monotony would take a toll and may tend to favour an alternative political outfit. “Much of the AAP success in Punjab will also depend on AAP’s delivery of promises in the national capital.

The AAP in Delhi elections was a strong advocate of justice for victims of the 1984 Delhi carnage. The party won hearts of the people in Punjab with its strong campaign hovering around the menace of drugs and good clean corruption-free governance,” Panday said.
The gentry in the urbanising villages in Punjab and the new aspiring sub-urban middle class population tend to reject the age old model of politics and could be AAP’s vanguards. The outcome of the Delhi polls may or may not resonate in Punjab, but the AAP has its task clearly cut out. Neither the SAD-BJP nor the Congress is taking this ‘visible threat’ lightly from this fledgling outfit.

AAP Member of Parliament Dharamvir Gandhi said they will set an example of delivery and good governance by making Delhi a model state. The upcoming by-election for the Dhuri assembly seat in Sangrur Lok Sabha constituency will be AAP’s first test. Still, the AAP Punjab challenge will never be a cakewalk, unlike in Delhi.

The electorate in Punjab to an extent felt ‘left out’ having voted for AAP in the Lok Sabha elections when the entire country rejected them. The ripples were felt in the subsequent few by-elections when the AAP candidates in Punjab even lost their deposits in areas where its winning MPs recorded huge victory margins.

The AAP, experts say, may have a fair bit of infrastructure machinery in Punjab, but it needs incessant lubrication to run rather than piece meal sporadic infusions – it needs to worry about building its cadre in the state.

It shied away from participating in the recent civic elections. Its leaders admit they weren’t prepared. Punjab Health Minister Daljeet Singh Cheema feels ground realities in Punjab and Delhi are poles apart. The bubble of the AAP would burst soon once it comes to delivering the tall promises made to the electorate, he said. Election year 2107, SAD leaders say, is far enough for people to realise the myth inherent in AAP’s model of political progression.