Israel's right move?

NETANYAHU'S RE-ELECTION; Will the government of 'Bibi the magician' compromise to set right the wrong or complicate the wrongs by going further right?

Benjamin Netanyahu is set to become the longest serving Israeli prime minister. True to his nickname, ‘Bibi the magician’ has returned against all odds and expectations and will soon become premier for the fourth time since 1996. And each time he has been at the helm, the Middle East peace process has stalled. As a result, Israeli colonies have grown and the elusive Palestinian state has not only shrunk, but moved further from reality too.

Last week’s typically-Israeli fractured election results suggest more of the same from Netanyahu – perhaps to justify his electoral mandate. After lagging behind in most pre-poll surveys, his Likud party emerged as the largest single party winning 30 of the 120 Knesset seats. This vindicated his gamble of advancing elections by two years after facing dissent both within the party and among his coalition. It also kept intact Israel’s track record of no party ever winning an outright majority under its proportional representation voting system.

The other right-wing parties – the Jewish Home party representing the colonies, foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Kulanu party – won 24 seats. The ultraorthodox parties – Shas and United Torah Judaism – claimed 13 seats. Most of these parties are likely to join Likud to form a coalition government during the next few weeks.

After raising hopes, centre-left challenger Isaac Herzog’s Zionist Union managed only 24 seats. Other left-of-centre parties – Yesh Atid and Meretz – won 14 seats, leaving the Joint Arab List with another 14. Herzog’s prospects were doomed after Netanyahu’s last-minute calibrated, deliberate and desperate gravitation towards anti-Arabism and fear-mongering rhetoric. He ranted against a new joint list of Palestinian parties representing 20 per cent of Israeli-Arab citizens and the left parties supportive of the peace process.

Netanyahu galvanised his supporters with an election-day video warning that Palestinian citizens in Israel were headed to the polling stations in “droves” to oust him. He also pledged that no Palestinian state would be established with him in charge. Though Netanyahu has backtracked on these statements since being elected, his pre-election strategy and victory have not only divided the Israeli populace, but also drawn a wedge between Israel and other actors in the complex West Asia political landscape on the one hand, and Israel’s ties with the West on the other.

Domestically, the next government would be bogged down by the decades-old Palestinian issue (human rights, security, statehood, colonies, etc.) and policies towards Arab Israelis. More importantly, there would be tremendous pressure on tackling the emotive and economic issues of raising the cost of living, unaffordable housing, increasing poverty and non-improvement of educational standards, among others.

Regionally, Likud’s victory, induced by the swipe against Arabs, would intensify, rather than heal, the Arab-Israeli wounds. The opposition to Iran’s nuclear negotiations would deepen the Tel Aviv-Tehran animosity and war of words. The tension with Hizbollah would remain. And the rest of the Arab world would again be caught between the devil and the deep sea (Israel and Iran).

It is Israel-West relations, however, that needs to be closely watched. No US administration has taken a more principled stand on the Palestinian-Israeli issue than President Barack Obama’s has done over the last six years. Similarly, the Obama administration has gone further than any other US administration in attempting to resolve the vexed Iranian nuclear issue

Angered by Washington’s stand on both counts, Netanyahu deliberately broke protocol and bypassed the White House to address the Republican-dominated US Congress in early March. The issue has sowed seeds of discord not only between the leaders of the two countries, but also their governments, parties and peoples.

Obama administration

While the Obama administration was hoping the results would be otherwise, Netanyahu’s re-election will test US-Israel ties that encompass military, economic, and political dynamics. Mending this multifaceted relationship is crucial to Israel’s well-being. The fact is that with the influential role that pro-Israeli lobbies play in US politics, Likud’s victory will cast a shadow on the US elections in 2016. Immediately, it also further complicates the ongoing Iran–P5+1 negotiations.

The next set of crises for Netanyahu and Israeli foreign policy is the European Union and the United Nations. The former, which swears by two-state solution in the context of the Palestinian issue, has constantly reiterated that enhancing its ties with Israel depends on the developments in the peace process. It has already threatened to impose new sanctions against European companies dealing in Israeli settlements.

In January, the United Nations confirmed that the Palestinians, without a formal state, will officially become a member of the International Criminal Court on April 1. In a setback to Israel, the order also states that the jurisdiction of the cases to be dealt with would date back to June 13, 2014.

As a result, the court will now investigate the Israel-Hamas war in the Gaza Strip in July-August 2014, which killed about 2,100 Palestinians and 70 Israelis. There has also been intense Palestinian pressure for an independent state through the United Nations, which has so far been blocked by the United States. However, reacting to Netanyahu’s recent hardline statements, Washington has said that it may review its position on this issue.

Amid this barrage of domestic and international crises, much now depends on how Netanyahu balances pre-election bluster with post-poll reality. Only time will tell if his government compromises to set right the wrong or complicates the wrongs by going further right.

(The writer is a Dubai-based political analyst and honorary fellow of the University of Exeter, UK)