After two droughts, above normal monsoon predicted

 After two consecutive drought years, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted above-normal south-west monsoon for 2016.

The rainfall for the entire country during the season from June to September would be 106% of the long term average (LPA).

According to the April forecast, there is 94% probability of the monsoon being normal to excess while the chances of a deficient monsoon is minuscule.

“The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the LPA with a model error of 5% on either side,” IMD Director-General L S Rathod said here. The positive outlook relies predominantly on the fact that El Nino is on the wane.

An unusual warming of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, El Nino is a much feared phenomenon that plays havoc with local weather conditions throughout the world.

An analysis of the past meteorological data, however, showed that in 71% of the years followed by El Nino years, the south-west monsoon was normal and above.

Similar projections
Two sets of mathematical models used by the IMD for monsoon prediction have come out with similar projections.

The April forecast is likely to bring cheer in the farm sector and among the policy makers who faced the brunt of two years of poor rains.

“It is a good sign of revival for the troubled agriculture sector after two consecutive years of poor rainfall in many parts of the country. It will give a boost to India’s economy,” said R G Agarwal, chairman, Dhanuka Agritech Ltd.

The years 2014 and 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all-India deficient monsoon years in the last 115 years.

Two private agencies, Weather Risk Management Service and Skymet, too, predicted normal and above-normal monsoon for 2016.