<p> After two consecutive drought years, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted above-normal south-west monsoon for 2016. <br /><br /></p>.<p>The rainfall for the entire country during the season from June to September would be 106% of the long term average (LPA).<br /><br />According to the April forecast, there is 94% probability of the monsoon being normal to excess while the chances of a deficient monsoon is minuscule.<br /><br />“The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the LPA with a model error of 5% on either side,” IMD Director-General L S Rathod said here. The positive outlook relies predominantly on the fact that El Nino is on the wane.<br /><br />An unusual warming of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, El Nino is a much feared phenomenon that plays havoc with local weather conditions throughout the world.<br /><br />An analysis of the past meteorological data, however, showed that in 71% of the years followed by El Nino years, the south-west monsoon was normal and above. <br /><br />Similar projections<br />Two sets of mathematical models used by the IMD for monsoon prediction have come out with similar projections.<br /><br />The April forecast is likely to bring cheer in the farm sector and among the policy makers who faced the brunt of two years of poor rains.<br /><br />“It is a good sign of revival for the troubled agriculture sector after two consecutive years of poor rainfall in many parts of the country. It will give a boost to India’s economy,” said R G Agarwal, chairman, Dhanuka Agritech Ltd.<br /><br />The years 2014 and 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all-India deficient monsoon years in the last 115 years.<br /><br />Two private agencies, Weather Risk Management Service and Skymet, too, predicted normal and above-normal monsoon for 2016.<br /></p>
<p> After two consecutive drought years, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday predicted above-normal south-west monsoon for 2016. <br /><br /></p>.<p>The rainfall for the entire country during the season from June to September would be 106% of the long term average (LPA).<br /><br />According to the April forecast, there is 94% probability of the monsoon being normal to excess while the chances of a deficient monsoon is minuscule.<br /><br />“The monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of the LPA with a model error of 5% on either side,” IMD Director-General L S Rathod said here. The positive outlook relies predominantly on the fact that El Nino is on the wane.<br /><br />An unusual warming of the sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, El Nino is a much feared phenomenon that plays havoc with local weather conditions throughout the world.<br /><br />An analysis of the past meteorological data, however, showed that in 71% of the years followed by El Nino years, the south-west monsoon was normal and above. <br /><br />Similar projections<br />Two sets of mathematical models used by the IMD for monsoon prediction have come out with similar projections.<br /><br />The April forecast is likely to bring cheer in the farm sector and among the policy makers who faced the brunt of two years of poor rains.<br /><br />“It is a good sign of revival for the troubled agriculture sector after two consecutive years of poor rainfall in many parts of the country. It will give a boost to India’s economy,” said R G Agarwal, chairman, Dhanuka Agritech Ltd.<br /><br />The years 2014 and 2015 was the fourth case of two consecutive all-India deficient monsoon years in the last 115 years.<br /><br />Two private agencies, Weather Risk Management Service and Skymet, too, predicted normal and above-normal monsoon for 2016.<br /></p>
