Jayalalithaa faces a tough election this time

“Confusing” is a word being frequently used about the outcome of the five Assembly polls, whereas till a few months ago, more definitive answers were forthcoming for each of these states.

The reason for the current “confusion” is simple: the contests in these states – Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry – have become too close to comfort any party. Needless to add,  they will have a bearing on the functioning of  the BJP and also the prospects of those opposed to the ruling party at the Centre.

On its own, the BJP is not expected to be a player, except in Assam and there too things are dicey. However, the BJP is looking towards  two women leaders – Mamata and Jayalalithaa – to help pull its chestnuts out of the fire. They were expected to sweep but found the Left -Congress “Joth” (alliance) in West Bengal in the case of Mamata and the DMK-Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu more formidable than was initially expected. 

The two women leaders represent two large states, and command a sizeable  chunk of MPs in the Lok Sabha – Mamata 34, Jayalalithaa 37 – and in the Rajya Sabha, more critical for the BJP, both have 12 seats each. Both are mass leaders, who have come up through struggle, and seen hardship. Both commandeer one woman outfits, so their decisions dare not be questioned.

If they win – and the BJP is hoping they will – both are likely to move towards a more harmonious relationship with  Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Not only because a state government has to constantly engage with the Centre and depend on it for the release of funds, but also because both Mamata and Jayalalithaa are likely to face aggressive opposition in their respective states, even if the Left-Congress and the DMK-Congress combines do not form government in Kolkata and Chennai.

Jayalalithaa has anyway enjoyed a close rapport with Modi over the years — even though her party has not yet taken a “support-GST” bill position so far. Now that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is threatening to put the Goods and Services Tax Bill (GST) to vote in the monsoon session of Parliament, even if the Congress continues to oppose it, the government will need all regional parties on board.  The GST is not just another important bill, it has become a symbol of Modi’s clout. 

Mamata had offered to support the GST. It is interesting that she chose to go it alone in the elections, instead of tying up with the Congress as she did in 2011, which would have ensured a sweep for her and prevented the Left from raising its head. But she knew that going with the Congress would invite her greater hostility from the Centre, given the growing bitterness between the BJP and the Congress leadership. But as things have turned out, victory or otherwise, the Left is  on the comeback trail, becoming an alternative pole around which dissatisfaction with her rule has been – and will get – mobilised. 

While Mamata’s fate is already sealed in the EVM boxes, Jayalalithaa faces the people on Monday as Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Kerala go to the polls. While violence is the bane of  West Bengal, it is money in Tamil Nadu, which was expected to come into play on the last day.

The Election Commission has already seized more than Rs 100 crore of unaccounted money in the state. Rates are also fixed for attending rallies. The domestic help of a friend in Chennai had not come to work for 10 days because she was “busy,” she said,  attending rallies (organised by both the Dravidian parties). The rate for going in the morning was Rs 150  with a snack and Rs 250 with food in the evening.

What is going for Amma are the numerous welfare schemes she has put into place, like Amma canteens, which serve cheap, clean and palatable food, Amma salt, cycles, laptops etc.

A fragmented opposition was also expected to  help her by dividing the anti-AIADMK vote, particularly with Vijay Kanth swerving towards the Third Front of parties, instead of going with the DMK and Anbumani Ramdoss’ PMK, and the BJP deciding to go it alone. Whenever the DMK has done well in the past, it has been as a part of a strong alliance, which is not the case this time. But the trouble is the Third Front is not doing as well as was expected, and if this creates a largely bipolar contest, it could be a problem for Amma.

In troubled waters

Amma’s worries are as follows. Her non-appearance at the time of floods disenchanted the middle classes though the poor have forgiven her because of the efficiency with which she provided relief and rehabilitation, including the transfer of Rs 5,000 to the affected. Roads were relaid with dispatch and you don’t see the aftermath of floods in Chennai, unlike Srinagar which was for months visibly scarred. Unlike other states, Tamil Nadu under Amma has had an efficient governance mechanism and the state bureaucracy is known to deliver, when she says so.

She was not as visible in the campaign as was M K Stalin, Karunanidhi’s son, who is seen as his inheritor and has reinvented his image, not just apologising for the mistakes the DMK made in its last term, but also reaching out to the young voters in a new way, even wearing checked shirts and jeans! There are an estimated Rs 1.2 crore new voters this time in Tamil Nadu, and their vote is expected to be decisive. Many believe that the DMK would have romped home had Stalin been projected as the party’s chief ministerial candidate.

The DMK’s decision to promise total prohibition of liquor introduced a new element into the TN elections this time. This was calculated to dent Amma’s core base among women who swear by her but would like the prohibition. The DMK has criticised her for funding her freebie programmes through a growing liquor business, which has ruined families.

Amma retaliated by announcing a new list of sops, like free Amma mobile phones, and waiving off 50% of the loans for girls  buying scooters. She also doubled the amount of gold that would be given to a girl when she gets married.

We will know on the May 19 where the pendulum finally stops, after swinging this way and that. Either way, the Tamil Nadu outcome is not expected to go against the BJP, for whichever Dravidian party comes to power it will face the compulsion of having to work with a BJP-ruled Centre. It is not without significance that the DMK had made it clear to its junior ally – the Congress – that it will not be part of the government if it came to power.