AIADMK: an uncertain unity

The merger of the two AIADMK factions that emerged after the death of J Jayalalithaa last year may have put an end to the squabbling in public between the two, but it is too early to say whether it has brought stability to the party or to the state’s politics. The factions led by Chief Minister Edappadi Palaniswami and his predecessor O Panneerselvam were both claiming the legacy of Jayalalithaa. The split happened mainly because of differences over the role of Jayalalithaa’s friend Sasikala, who is now in jail, and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran in the party. With the chief minister’s faction distancing itself from the Sasikala clan, the main point of conflict has been removed. The OPS faction has been accommodated with ministerial and organisational positions, including deputy chief ministership and an important party position for the former chief minister. But in the absence of Jayalalithaa’s leadership, which had held the party together, the lack of any ideology, clashing egos, interests and ambitions can make short work of the unity that is on display now.

The Sasikala faction is down but not completely out, with Dhinakaran claiming support of enough number of MLAs to even destabilise the government. Although Dhinakaran has been removed from his position in the party, Sasikala continues to be its general secretary. It may not be possible to remove her from that position immediately, and there are voices within the Edappadi group that oppose her complete ouster. The Sasikala faction is not thought to enjoy any great support from the party cadres or from the people. But it is considered to have financial clout and may have some bargaining power with the leaders of the unified party and influence on some legislators. It could be a factor of uncertainty in the immediate future.

The main beneficiary of the developments in the AIADMK and the eventual merger of the two factions is the BJP. In fact, the marriage between the factions was made in Delhi and all the political drama was played according to a script prepared by the BJP’s leaders. The party has not been able to find an opening in Tamil Nadu, which is dominated by Dravidian parties. It hopes that control over the AIADMK will give it a role in the state’s politics, and so the AIADMK merger is part of the party’s agenda in the state. The leaders of both factions have met Prime Minister Narendra Modi many times. The AIADMK may become part of the NDA and be given representation in the union ministry. The Centre will also spare no effort to keep the state government afloat.