JOIN USWhile there was euphoria amongst BJP rank and file all over the country after its victory in the North East, it was a different scene in Madhya Pradesh, where enthusiasm was missing among party leaders.
This was understandable as the BJP had just lost two Assembly bypolls - Kolaras and Mungaoli in Madhya Pradesh, and these results have come ahead of Assembly polls later this year. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and his cabinet colleagues had campaigned hard, making emotional appeals to the people, but the voters didn't give them a chance.
In fact, party leaders who had gone canvassing had felt the undercurrent. Chouhan has been chief minister for 12 years and BJP has been at the helm in Madhya Pradesh for over 14 years. That's a long period, and strong anti-incumbency is being felt finally.
Citizens in rural parts of Madhya Pradesh, who had had a long honeymoon period with Chouhan, seem to have grown tired of the long reign and appear disenchanted.
With his image of a mild politician who spoke with humility and interacted with all and sundry, Shivraj had successfully positioned himself as the 'one-man army' in the state BJP. Even opposition leaders accepted that it was 'Brand Shivraj' that won the BJP election after election. Congress appeared a divided house and incapable of taking him on.
But, 2017 changed everything. It started with the farmers' movement in the wake of firing in Mandsaur in which five persons were killed. This was the trigger. While Vyapam scam had already hurt his credibility, it was the farmers' suicides that unnerved BJP.
Agitations started in all corners of the state as the year 2018 began. From contract teachers to unemployed youth, health workers to the differently-abled, everyone was suddenly on the streets over demands or unfulfilled promises.
The disenchantment was more and more visible. In public meetings, even Chouhan's presence failed to bring in the crowd. His speeches and one-liners were no longer receiving applause.
That the people were running out of patience and had had enough of promises was visible in the bypoll results. Despite three terms, there has been no major job-creation in the state. Investment summits have been held but not much is visible on the ground. The farm sector is in bad shape.
Farmers' suicides have become a major factor in Madhya Pradesh. With nearly one crore people in the state linked to agriculture, it is the disaffection amongst this section which is worrying the BJP most.
'Berozgar Sena' (Army of the Unemployed), a newly floated outfit, is holding demonstrations and putting the government in a spot over its promises. And, the question "why has government failed to deliver" is now being heard all the time.
One after the other, the BJP has lost four byelections in different parts of the state within a period of 10 months - Chitrakoot in the east, Ater in the north, and the two losses recently.
Dissent rises
Party leaders are now openly expressing their displeasure. Senior BJP leader and former state party vice-president Raghunandan Sharma said that it was strange that the BJP was able to win Tripura, a Left citadel, but couldn't succeed in bypolls in MP. He blamed the party for wrong selection of candidates.
Former Union minister Sartaj Singh openly gave a statement about corruption in Madhya Pradesh and said he was asked for a bribe when he went for medical reimbursement. Such statements have irked the state leadership.
This signals the mood within the party. The BJP, which has won poll after poll - Lok Sabha, Assembly, most bypolls and urban body elections - for more than a decade, is now having to come to terms with a strong anti-incumbency factor.
Both Mungaoli and Kolaras are part of Guna Lok Sabha constituency, represented by Congress MP Jyotiraditya Scindia. Hence, it had become a prestige issue for BJP to win the bypolls.
The Media had dubbed the fight as 'Shivraj Vs Scindia'. Hence, the results have affected Shivraj even more. Congress, on the other hand, is putting up a united face.
Though there is still no official announcement as to who is going to be the face of Congress' campaign, signs are that Scindia would be in the forefront. While workers want that the party should announce a CM candidate in advance, the central leadership hasn't given in to the demand.
Speaking to journalists in Bhopal, Scindia said that now there are just 270 days (nine months) to go before polls, and each day counts. Clearly, he is in battle mode. After over a decade and a half, Congress has sensed that it has a chance to win the state, and it's gearing up.
For Chouhan, whose goodwill and popularity helped him play a long inning as CM, the challenge is now to save the BJP fortress in Madhya Pradesh.
(The writer is a senior journalist based in Bhopal)