Experts see GDP clocking 9.4 per cent growth in Q1

Experts see GDP clocking 9.4 per cent growth in Q1

The economic growth data for the first quarter is scheduled to be released on Tuesday. The economy, which had expanded 8.6 per cent in the previous quarter, was the second fastest growing large economy after China, which had registered a growth of 11.9 per cent in the March quarter.

In the corresponding period last fiscal the Indian economy grew at a slower pace of 6 per cent. “The April-June quarter is likely to see an economic growth of 9.4 per cent on the back of low base last year. The quarter will the best performing in the current fiscal as growth will moderate going forward on high base,” said a banker.

Experts attributed the likely high growth to industrial sector, particularly manufacturing. The industrial output in the April-June quarter of current

Experts said a strong industrial growth will be complemented by good services and farm sector output which will make June quarter growth the best in the fiscal. “We expect agriculture growth to come in at 3.2 per cent, arising out of rabi harvest and foodgrain procurement. For services, we project a growth of 9.5 per cent,” said another banker. He added that the June quarter growth would come in at 8.9 per cent.

In  June quarter of FY’10, agriculture growth was 1.9 per cent and services growth was at 7.5 per cent. “I see June quarter growth coming in at 9 per cent. industry will be outperformer and farm sector will see good output on normal monsoon,” Crisil Chief Economist D K Joshi said.

Economists believe the overall economic growth for fiscal 2011-11 is expected to be upwards of 8.5 per cent. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has projected an economic growth of 8.5 per cent for the current fiscal. “We expect the fiscal year 2011 growth to be at 8.8 per cent,” they noted.

While projecting an 8.7 per cent growth for fiscal year 2011  they observed that there could be a deceleration in industrial activity on high base and tight liquidity ... “this could impart a downward bias to this number.”

GDP growth slowed to 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 from nine per cent in the previous three years due to global financial meltdown.

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