JOIN USAssam verdict to decide the fate of alliance politics
The counting of votes on Sunday for Assembly elections in Assam would not just give a verdict about who would form the next government but would also decide the success of alliance politics, perhaps tried more vigorously for the first time.
The three-phased elections for 126 Assembly seats, which concluded on April 6, was a fight among three alliances. One is led by BJP and the second is an alliance of seven opposition parties led by Congress while two new parties, Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal formed the third one and contested the elections together.
Also read: Will the CAA end BJP's run in Assam?
The exit poll results suggesting a victory for BJP and its allies made the saffron party ecstatic and said they would win at least 83 seats. Congress, on the other hand, refused to accept the exit polls. The party sounded confident that the "grand alliance" it formed with seven opposition parties including Badruddin Ajmal-led AlUDF and BPF this time would wrest power from BJP, similarly, the saffron party did in 2016.
"We will form the government. The grand alliance touched all sections of the society, irrespective of caste and religion," AICC in-charge of Assam, Jitendra Singh told reporters in Guwahati on Sunday.
BJP in 2016 had formed an alliance with AGP and Bodoland People's Front (BPF) and formed its first government in Assam by wresting power from a 15-year-old Congress government led by Tarun Gogoi. By aligning with two regional parties, BJP played the identity politics card strongly by promising that their alliance was the only an answer to Assam's fight against the foreigners. BJP alone won 60 seats while AGP and BPF won 14 and 12 seats respectively.
Congress, which was hesitant to have a pre-poll alliance and contested the polls alone, won only 26 seats. According to poll observers, the success of BJP's alliance in 2016 was one of the reasons prompting Congress to stitch the "grand alliance" this time. The grand alliance is banking that the anti-CAA sentiments and the "united Muslim votes" would go in their favour.
Eyes will also be on the third alliance of AJP and Raijor Dal that primarily focussed on the anti-CAA votes, particularly in the eastern and North Assam districts (Sivasagar, Tinsukia, Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Golaghat, Majuli, Dhemaji, Lakhimpur, Sonitpur).
The focus on Sunday will also be on the new political equations that emerged in Bodoland region in western Assam having 12 Assembly seats. The BPF, which was an ally of BJP in 2016 had won all 12 but this time they are with Congress. BJP replaced BPF with UPPL, a new party in Bodoland, which formed the Bodoland Council along with BJP in December last year. Many says BPF is still a stronger party than the UPPL in Bodoland.
The counting of votes will begin at 8 am on Sunday, following the Covid-19 protocols.
2016 poll results:
Total seats: 126
BJP: 60
Asom Gana Parishad: 14
Bodoland People's Front: 12
Congress: 26
AIUDF: 13
Independent: 1
Vote share in 2016
BJP+AGP+BPF: 41.59%
Congress: 31%
AIUDF: 13%
Poll percentage in 2021: 82.4%