Bihar Assembly Elections 2025 | Factors that could swing polls in RJD-Congress' I.N.D.I.A. bloc favour

The I.N.D.I.A. bloc, led by the opposition parties RJD and Congress, will compete with the state's current ruling party, the NDA in the upcoming Assembly elections.

On Monday, The Election Commission announced a two-phase polls in the state of Bihar. The voting is scheduled to be held on November 6 and 11, and the counting on November 14.

The I.N.D.I.A. bloc, led by the opposition parties RJD and Congress, will compete with the state's current ruling party, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), in the upcoming Assembly elections.

As the I.N.D.I.A. bloc's allegations of 'vote chori' against Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) garnered attention, all eyes are on the polls now.

Here is a look at a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc led by RJD-Congress combine.

Strengths:

1. The RJD enjoys a strong and loyal Muslim-Yadav (MY) vote base, that combinedly accounts for almost 30 per cent of the total electorate.

2. The Congress’ Voter Adhikar Yatra, which was led by Rahul Gandhi, has motivated party workers across Bihar. Throughout the 15-day campaign, people's faith in Congress is said to have revived.

3. With RJD founder Lalu Prasad taking a back seat, the party has put forward his son Tejashwi Yadav as its leader. Tejashwi, who is also a former deputy chief minister, has gained significant support from the state’s youth.

Weaknesses:

1. The RJD, which is the largest constituent of the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, is largely controlled by Lalu Prasad, Tejashwi Yadav and their immediate family members who are caught in legal disputes including the land for jobs scam which is being probed by Enforcement Directorate (ED).

2. Though Tejashwi has been accepted among party members, scenes caused by siblings and other members of the Yadav family have often forced the RJD heir to focus more on managing his family wrangles than managing the party and attending to alliance partners.

Opportunities:

1. Tejashwi seized the opportunity to project himself as an individual attentive to the state's desperate need for employment, while also raising the issue of migration and law and order situation. With a young leader like him at the forefront, the I.N.D.I.A. bloc can look for a makeover in their image.

2. An alliance with like-minded parties like Congress and the CPI(ML) Liberation and Nitish Kumar's abrupt return to NDA may help the RJD and its allies in garnering the entire chunk of Muslim votes.

3. Although the ruling party takes claim for the caste survey conducted two years ago by the state government, the RJD was sharing power when the exercise was followed by a hike in quotas for all deprived communities, something it can electorally take advantage of given its "Mandal" accreditation.

Threats

1. Though out of power for a significant period, keeping the alliance cohesive while managing leaders with ambition pose major challenges for the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.

(with agency inputs)