Gujarat: A warm-up march for BJP before LS polls?

Unlike its hyperbolic poll campaign in 2017 around “Vikas Gando Thayo Che (Development has gone crazy)” or “Shah-Zyada Kha Gaya (a reference to Amit Shah’s son Jay’s business deals)”, the Congress’s campaign for the 2022 Gujarat assembly elections remains the most silent one. Even Rahul Gandhi, who led the previous campaign, is largely missing from action. The party is barely making headlines compared to “carpet bombing” style of campaigning of the ruling BJP spearheaded by none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, himself, and the Aam Aadmi Party by Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal.

. Yet, Assam chief minister and BJP leader Himanta Biswa Sarma, while campaigning in Gujarat, targeted Rahul Gandhi and said “he looked like Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein”. In an earlier rally in the state, Sharma cited the horrific murder of Shraddha Walkar by her boyfriend in Delhi, “Murderers like Aftab (the boyfriend of Shraddha) would emerge in every city if the country doesn’t chose strong leader.” He also mentioned to the audience, “this is not about the Gujarat election but your vote will be making Narendra Modi prime minister for the third time in 2024”.

. Most of the BJP leaders, including Modi and union home minister Amit Shah, took on the Congress during campaigning in Gujarat, alleging that “curfew” and “hullad” (rioting) were common phenomena before the saffron party came to power in the state. The BJP leader and the union minister, Kailash Chaudhary, addressing a rally, went on to say, “Pakistan wants BJP to be defeated and Congress to form the government in Gujarat”.

. The 2024 parliamentary polls is just about 18 months away and the BJP has clearly taken the assembly elections in the prime minister’s home state as a warm-up match. That is why the crux of its campaign in the state is all about Modi and made of usual ingredients of his “strong leadership” and his “relentless pursuit for development” – of course with liberal toppings of Hindutva and subtle and sometimes not-so-subtle innuendos against religious minority community.

. Shah accused the Congress of “sheltering” anti-social elements involved in violence. He went on to say that such elements had been “taught a lesson” in 2002 in a manner that no such incident had taken place since then. He was apparently referring to the communal clashes that the state had witnessed 20 years ago.

. “Modi is, perhaps, addressing more rallies than the chief minister of Gujarat. We have never seen a prime minister spending so much time in a state. It is unprecedented,” says senior journalist and political analyst Shyam Parekh. “It also reveals that the result of the assembly polls in Gujarat will set the stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. It seems that he (Modi) is rather preparing for another full five-year term (as prime minister).” The Congress has not been retaliating much against the BJP’s onslaught. But the grand old party’s strategists in the state say that its door-to-door campaigning is working.

. The BJP is experiencing large scale rebellion within its ranks this time. The party denied tickets to 38 sitting MLAs, including former ministers. At least 18 of its disgruntled leaders are contesting polls as independents after failing to secure the party’s nominations. The party has suspended them.

. The Congress hopes to gain out of the infighting within the ruling party. Some political observers in Ahmedabad believe that the elections could spring surprises.

. The campaign by AAP is said to have succeeded in creating a strong buzz about a “change”. Kejriwal’s party is offering sops to voters, such as free electricity, health, education, monthly unemployment stipends to youths and women, among others. Modi and the other BJP leaders initially criticized the AAP, terming the sops it offered as “revdis” or “freebies”. But they later completely stopped slamming the AAP during campaigns across the state.

. GUJARAT

. Total Seats: 182 Reserved for SCs: 13 Reserved for STs: 27 No of Electors: Over 4.91 crore No of Polling Stations: 51782 Total No of Candidates: 1621

. Polling Dates:

. 1st Phase: DECEMBER 1 (89 constituencies) 2nd Phase: DECEMBER 5 (93 constituencies)

. Counting of Votes: DECEMBER 8

. Faces of Campaign:

. BJP: Narendra Modi AAP: Arvind Kejriwal Congress: ?

. Chief Ministerial Candidates:

. BJP: Bhupendra Patel AAP: Isudan Gadhvi Congress: ?

. Key Issues:

. ● Anti-incumbency against the BJP. ● Inflation, unemployment. ● Remission of 11 convicts in Bilkis Bano gang rape case ● Recruitment exam paper leaks ● Privatisation of schools, poor quality of education and lack of healthcare

. Key Constituencies

. 1. RAJKOT WEST: Narendra Modi was elected from this constituency in February 2002 after becoming chief minister for the first time in October 2001. He was later elected from Maninagar assembly seat in Ahmedabad, repeatedly before becoming prime minister in 2014. In 2017, then chief minister Vijay Rupani also contested from Rajkot West. Dr Darshita Shah, deputy mayor of Rajkot, is the BJP’s bet for this constituency this time, while the Congress and the AAP have fielded Mansukh Kalariya and Dinesh Joshi respectively

. 2. GANDHINAGAR NORTH: A prestigious constituency for the BJP, which, however, had lost to the Congress here last time. This time the contestants are Virrendrasinh Vaghela of the Congress, Rita Patel of the BJP and Mukesh Patel of the AAP.

. 3. GANDHINAGAR SOUTH: The BJP has fielded Congress turncoat and OBC leader, Alpesh Thakor, from this seat. He will be taking on Dr Himanshu Patel of the Congress.

. 4. VIRAGRAM: Congress turncoat Hardik Patel is contesting in this constituency as the BJP’s candidate. He will take on MLA Lakha Bharwad of the Congress. The AAP has fielded Kuvarji Thakor.

. 5. CHHOTA UDEPUR: The constituency is reserved for Scheduled Tribes. Mohansinh Rathva won from this constituency in 2012 and 2017. He recently quit the Congress and joined the BJP. His son, Rajendrasinh Rathva, is now the BJP candidate for this constituency, while the Congress fielded Rajya Sabha member Naran Rathva's son Sangramsinh Rathva.

Gujarat: A warm-up march for BJP before LS polls?

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