Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Modi’s unusual tirade makes it seem tough for BJP in Rajasthan

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s slamming of Sonia Gandhi for not contesting elections and his unusual remarks about redistribution of wealth to Muslims if Congress comes to power in his two election speeches in Rajasthan, apart from evoking strong reactions from the Opposition, are perhaps signs of desperation and an indication that the BJP may not be able to sweep the desert state and achieve a hat-trick this time, say poll analysts. 

While speaking in Jalore on Sunday, Modi, in an oblique reference to Congress leader Sonia Gandhi, said that those who cannot fight and win elections are taking the Rajya Sabha route to Parliament. Sonia Gandhi recently became a Rajya Sabha member from Rajasthan and is not contesting the Lok Sabha polls. 

In another speech in Banswara, the prime minister said that if Congress comes to power, “everyone’s property will be surveyed and it will calculate gold belonging to mothers and sisters and then redistribute it. They won’t even spare your mangalsutra,” adding that Congress is now “in the grip of urban Naxals.” 

“The Prime Minister’s unusual tirade against the Congress and I.N.D.I.A bloc during the poll campaign shows the BJP is going all out to create some kind of sensationalism. Probably their assessment of the Ram temple issue as being the vote-catcher is not working. It is not resonating as much as they thought it would. Modi’s magic may be waning,” Sunny Sebastian, a senior poll observer, told DH. 

Low-turnout worry

Adding to the worry is the low voter turnout of 57.26 % in the first phase of polls in 12 Lok Sabha constituencies of Rajasthan. 

Another reason for prime minister’s Jalore foray was to boost their candidate Lumbaram Choudhury, who is debuting in this election. He is up against former chief minister Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav Gehlot 43, where the Congress leader is said to be putting in all efforts for a win as a consecutive loss is not going to augur well for his political career. Vaibhav lost his 2019 Lok Sabha election in Jodhpur to Union minister Gajendra Singh Sehkhawat.

Lumbaram (59), a dedicated BJP worker himself, is banking on Modi’s guarantees to see him through.

Temple not a big issue

“He is facing anti-incumbency as the incumbent MP Devji Patel, has been nurturing the constituency for 15 years, yet there has been minimal development. No employment opportunities have come about. People used to migrate to Gujarat and Maharashtra for work earlier. Now they are migrating as far as the South. Also, Ram mandir is not an overarching issue here.” says Sebastian, who recently toured Jalore-Sirohi.  

Lumbaram is also facing an internal rift and groupism in the district unit after incumbent MP Devji Patel was denied a ticket. There are chances that Devji’s supporters may try to sabotage. Also, Lumbaram and Devji both belong to the same caste, Kalvi, and hence there is resentment amongst other castes who complain that people from the same caste are getting tickets repeatedly. 

So Modi’s presence in Jalore was important to boost Lumbaram’s chances of a comfortable win.

“But his utterances and constant attacks on Congress’s dynastic politics and corruption instead of his vision for the future do reveal that the BJP may be a bit jittery. Moreover, the speculation that Congress may not allow a clean sweep by the BJP might be playing on their minds. But it smacks of desperation instead of confidence for one of the world’s largest parties,” says Narayan Bareth, a senior political analyst. 

A hindrance

While calling Vaibhav an outsider, Lumbaram, with an RSS background, has risen from booth-level work. But the high number of OBCs comprising the Mali community, to which Gehlot belongs, may be a hindrance for him.

Although Jalore is a BJP stronghold, especially in the past three elections, Vaibhav’s candidature from Congress, has made the contest a bit tricky. 

Previously a Congress stronghold, Jalore has become a BJP bastion after 2004. This time the contest seems tight.