Lok Sabha elections 2024: Why Congress insists that BJP will settle at less than 200

Congress leaders cite a string of Modi’s actions to highlight uneasiness in the rival’s camp – from Bharat Ratnas to wooing I.N.D.I.A. allies, defections, ED and IT Department actions, raking up issues like Kachchatheevu and the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.

New Delhi: If Modi set 370 seats, a number which has ideological significance after the abrogation of Article 370, as a target for his party workers, Rahul told the ‘Loktantra Bachao’ rally last Sunday that the BJP will not even cross 180 seats, and if it all happens, it would be with the help of “EVM, or match-fixing, or social media”.

Rhetoric may be the norm during poll season but Congress sources say that Rahul putting the BJP number below half than what its target – something reiterated by Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge at the rally – was not election hyperbole but based on internal surveys and inputs from bureaucracy, academicians and industry leaders.

Congress leaders cite a string of Modi’s actions to highlight uneasiness in the rival’s camp – from Bharat Ratnas to wooing I.N.D.I.A. allies, defections, ED and IT Department actions, raking up issues like Katchatheevu and the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.

“BJP is playing mind games with these numbers. They are not at all confident and that is why two Chief Ministers are in jails. They have unleashed tax terrorism on Congress. They are manufacturing issues like Kachchatheevu. These things do not say anything about a confident BJP,” Congress General Secretary (Communications) Jairam Ramesh told DH.

Congress leader Srivatsa echoed Ramesh, “desperation behind Modi’s ‘Katchatheevu’ story is another proof of BJP’s real tally being 180 seats. Modi’s strategy is to make up losses across India in Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. But BJP will get zero in Tamil Nadu and Andhra, and less than last time in Odisha. Overall, BJP is losing 100+ seats.”

One of the evident catchment areas the BJP identified in the south is Tamil Nadu which has 39 seats. It also expects an improved performance in Telangana though a resurgent Congress may still have an upper hand.

The BJP had won 30 out of 131 seats from south India, with Karnataka accounting for 26 and Telangana 4. Congress believes that the BJP cannot repeat the 2019 performance in Karnataka once again, especially with the popularity of the Siddaramaiah government and internal troubles in BJP that had an impact in Assembly elections too.

The Congress assessment on the north is much more positive than 2019 owing to their belief that the BJP has saturated in the region. Congress leaders claim that their internal surveys showed that the BJP is unlikely to repeat their performance in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, and Haryana, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

They also expect the BJP to lose some of the 23 seats it had won in Maharashtra. Congress leaders believe that the BJP which stitched alliances with JD(U) and RLD very quickly also strategically decided not to enter into alliances with Akali Dal and JJP with an “aim to split votes going to Congress”.

Their belief is that the arrest of former Chief Minister Hemant Soren will work in its favour not only in Jharkhand but in tribal belts across the north besides attracting the poor and the middle class following Kejriwal’s arrest.

“Our inference is that Kejrwal’s arrest, which looks like a diversionary tactic to deflect from the electoral bonds issue, is not going the way the BJP wanted. BJP is losing momentum and is panicking. They do not have a positive messaging to build on,” a senior leader claimed.

Kejriwal’s arrest has boosted the Congress-AAP alliance’s prospects in Delhi while Mamata Banerjee’s strident fight may be a hindrance for the BJP to grow in numbers in West Bengal.

“Modi’s 370 target is basically to ensure that the BJP numbers do not decline beyond 272. Once BJP cannot retain what it had in 2019, then you can see a sea change in Indian politics,” a Congress poll strategist said.

The party strategist insisted that the BJP has realised that the Ram temple inauguration has not gone its way and needed new narratives and catchment areas.