A clash of two bigwigs that couldn't have got any closer

Dodda Malur was still fresh from a fair held by its famous Aprameya Swami Temple earlier this week. But the festive atmosphere belied the tension on who will win Channapatna, a seat poised for a photo finish.

“My street was dotted with shops for the temple festival,” Kempegowda, a resident, said with excitement. But ask him about the election and he holds back. “There’s a tight fight.”

Former JD(S) chief minister H D Kumaraswamy is up against BJP’s C P Yogeshwara in a high-stakes election for Channapatna. The Vokkaliga-dominated constituency has over one lakh voters from that community. There are about 30,000 Muslim voters as well.

Channapatna was considered to be the stronghold of JD(S). But 1999 onward, the JD(S) lost out to Yogeshwara who held the seat five times until 2018 when Kumaraswamy defeated him.

Kumaraswamy and Yogeshwara carry a lot of goodwill and voters are a confused lot. Add to the mix is Gangadhar S from Congress who can potentially spoil Yogeshwara’s prospects.

“Kumaraswamy and Yogeshwara have 58,000-60,000 votes each that they will get. The election outcome will depend on 16,000 undecided votes,” said Raghu, a farmer who doubles up as a local pollster. “If Congress gets 35,000 votes, then Yogeshwara will lose. He can win if Congress is restricted to about 20,000 votes,” he explained.

Voters have good things to say about Yogeshwara mainly for improving irrigation in Channapatna, an otherwise arid region. “Farmers have prospered because of Yogeshwara. We owe that to him,” Shankar, a farmer, said.

Voters like Nanjunda, a shopkeeper, seem to be leaning towards Kumaraswamy. “He helps the poor, waived farm loans and developed roads,” Nanjunda said. The prospect of Kumaraswamy becoming CM again is also a factor on the ground.

Notwithstanding Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent rally in Channapatna, the BJP’s presence is limited because voters relate with Yogeshwara the individual and not the symbol he represents.

Between 1998 and 2013, Yogeshwara contested on a Congress ticket twice, once on an SP ticket, then a BJP ticket and also as an independent.

Tough fight for Nikhil?

In the neighbouring Ramanagara segment, which helped JD(S) supremo H D Deve Gowda become the chief minister three decades ago, his grandson Nikhil Kumaraswamy is seeking his first election victory.

A win will act as a closure for Nikhil’s 2019 Lok Sabha defeat in Mandya, which was his maiden poll.

However, locals say Nikhil faces a tough contest against Congress’ Iqbal Hussain and BJP’s Goutham Gowda. The real worry for Nikhil is split in votes that Congress and BJP candidates can cause.

Congress has not won Ramanagara since 1999. The party is banking on consolidation of Muslim votes.

Goutham is the son of former JD(S) MLC Marilinge Gowda who can eat into the regional party’s traditional vote bank.