'Above normal' rainfall expected in July but states in northeast, east and parts of south likely to face lack: IMD

New Delhi: India is likely to experience 'above normal' rainfall in July, receiving 106% of the average monthly precipitation and raising the possibility of flood like situations in parts of central and north India, the India Meteorological Department warned here on Monday.

The country, on an average, receives over 280 mm of rainfall in July, a month that gets the maximum quota of monsoon rain during the four-month season.

"The monthly average rainfall over the country as a whole in July 2025 is most likely to be above normal, exceeding 106% of the Long Period Average of 280.4 mm,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD said.

But Tamil Nadu, parts of Kerala, Bihar, northern areas of West Bengal and almost the entire North East is likely to experience 'below-normal' rainfall, according to the IMD.

The weather bureau predicted heavy rains in eastern Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and adjoining areas of Vidarbha and Telangana, alerting the administration on the possibility of high water level in the catchment areas of Mahanadi, Godavari and Krishna rivers.

Water levels would also be up in smaller rivers like Brahmani, Subarnarekha and Rushikulya.

Mohapatra said good rainfall was also expected in Uttarakhand and Haryana. "This region includes several cities and towns, including Delhi. Many south-flowing rivers originate in Uttarakhand. We must take precautions for all these river catchments, cities and towns," he warned.

The south west monsoon covered the entire country by June 29, nine days ahead of its normal day of July 8. Such a rapid progress of the monsoon was seen only 12 times between 1960 and 2024. In half of these years, India ended with “above normal” monsoon rainfall.

The average maximum temperature in July will remain “below normal” for most of the country, barring the Malabar coast, North East, Bihar and northern parts of Jammu and Kashmir, keeping the country cool. The minimum temperature too will remain lower than normal for central and north India.

The monsoon set in over Kerala on May 24, against the normal date of June 1 – the earliest arrival since 2009 – and was followed by rapid advance till May 29 by when it covered the entire southern India and the north east.

Further progress began from June 16 and it reached most parts of the country within ten days barring a sliver of an area comprising parts of northwest Rajasthan, western Uttar Pradesh, southern Punjab and Haryana and Delhi where it was stuck for three days.