BJP-led NDA better placed to win presidential elections

The BJP-led NDA will comfortably romp home in the Presidential elections to be held in July this year with the gap between ruling side and the Opposition in an electoral college of 10.90 lakh votes is as high as around one lakh votes.

At present, an analysis showed, the BJP is likely to get 5.42 lakh votes for its nominee while the anti-BJP forces can garner only around 4.49 lakh. YSR Congress and BJD, who have not joined any grouping and together have a vote value of 75,528, are likely to support the NDA, making it easier for the ruling combine.

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The electoral college for the Presidential election consists of elected MPs and elected MLAs of states (776 MPs and 4120 MLAs) with a vote value of 10,98,903. While the value of an MP’s vote is 708, the vote value of MLAs differ from state to state. For example, the vote value of a Karnataka MLA will be 131 while that of Uttar Pradesh is 208, the highest, and Sikkim at 7, the lowest.

If all the votes are polled, the winning candidate should need 5,49,452 votes. At present, there are 13 vacancies in Parliament besides some in a handful of state Assemblies. However, even if these seats are filled before the Presidential elections, it is unlikely to make significant changes in the electoral college.

While Opposition leaders have made it clear that they would field a joint candidate, top Congress leader Rahul Gandhi refused any comment, saying, “I won’t comment now.” Even if YSR Congress and BJD also join the Opposition ranks, it is unlikely to upset the BJP apple-cart. A senior YSR leader said there was no reason not to vote for the NDA candidate.

However, BJP’s choice of candidate can create trouble in the Opposition ranks. For example, sources said, if a Tamil is fielded, it would be difficult for the DMK to be seen voting against such a candidate. They cite the JD(U) breaking ranks with Congress and others in the 2017 Presidential elections after the BJP announced Ram Nath Kovind’s candidature.

The analysis of the electoral college showed that the anti-NDA parties have more votes among MLAs (2.77 lakh) than the BJP-led coalition (2.22 lakh). However in Parliament, it is reversed and the NDA has 3.20 lakh votes while their opponents have 1.72 lakh only.

While the NDA is not getting a single vote in Kerala, anti-NDA grouping will not get any votes in Andhra Pradesh and Nagaland. The anti-NDA forces are doing very well in the south while it is not faring bad in the north but the BJP-led combine is ahead.

The north-east is another region, though the vote value is not very high, where the anti-NDA forces are doing well.

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