DH Deciphers | The census-delimitation link: Why southern states are worried

New Delhi: Chief ministers of the southern states have raised concerns that the next delimitation exercise, which may follow the Census-2027, could result in diminished representation for these states in Parliament. Sumit Pande explains the concept of delimitation and the political controversy over the next decennial census announced by the Centre.

What has the Union government announced regarding the next census?

The decennial census in India has been held every 10 years. The 2021 enumeration was postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The government has now announced that India will count its population between 2026 and 2027. The reference date for the census has, however, been fixed as March 1, 2027.

How is the census conducted?

The Census Act, 1948, provides the legal framework for conducting the population count. It is conducted by the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, which, as per Article 246, is a union subject and falls under the Union Home Ministry. The census is generally conducted in two phases — house listing followed by population enumeration. The first phase will be conducted in 2026. The population count, except in hilly regions where it may be conducted before the onset of winter, will be carried out over 21 days in February 2027.

How is the delimitation linked to the census?

Delimitation allows periodic alteration in the boundaries of both Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies for equitable representation. The exercise is based on census figures on population. The three delimitations between 1951 and 1971 that increased the LS seats from 494 to 543 were based on corresponding decennial censuses. In 1976, the Indira Gandhi government paused the exercise for 30 years. This was done to overcome the political advantage that would accrue to states on account of their higher population and fertility rates, which would translate to a proportionately higher representation in the LS.

When was the last delimitation held in India?

The last delimitation was held under the Delimitation Act 2002 under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee regime. A Delimitation Commission was constituted under the chairmanship of former Supreme Court judge Justice Kuldip Singh.  The panel used the 2001 census figures to reset the boundaries of the existing constituencies. However, the exercise was mandated to be conducted without altering the total number of seats in each state. Thus, the total number of LS seats after delimitation remained 543.

Why have the total seats remained unchanged since 1971?

The 30-year freeze in seats put into place by the 42nd Constitution Amendment, 1976, piloted by Indira Gandhi, was to end in 2006. In 2002, after broader consultation, the Vajpayee government introduced another constitutional amendment to extend the interstate delimitation pause by another two decades till the “first census conducted after 2026".

What is the concern raised by the CMs of southern states?

Since the reference date of the next census is March 1, 2027, it falls beyond the effect of the 2026 timeline. Hence, the Census-2027 headcount— if the earlier freeze is not extended — can be used for the next delimitation. This, the southern CMs argue, could lead to a proportionate increase in the total number of LS seats from each state calculated on their current population. Consequently, the increase in the number of seats from the high-population states would be more than the ones that have successfully implemented population control programmes.

What has been the response of the Union government?

Union Home Minister Amit Shah has, however, maintained that the concerns of the southern states will be taken into account before embarking on the next delimitation exercise. It's not clear whether the final headcount based on Census-2027 would be available to undertake the next delimitation before the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.

How is Census-2027 linked to the Women's Reservation Bill?

The bill passed in 2023 provides 33% reservation to women in the Lok Sabha and Assembly constituencies. The Act, though, comes into effect “after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after commencement” of this Act have been published.