Goa Assembly Elections: TMC, AAP to challenge political scene in Goa as BJP fights anti-incumbency

The 40-member Goa Assembly will go to polls on February 14 – with new entrants TMC and AAP seeking to take on the ruling BJP.

According to the Election Commission of India (ECI) announcement, the polls will held in a single phase and results will be declared on March 10. along with four other poll-bound states -- Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh and Manipur.

The coastal state has about 11,56,464 eligible voters, which includes 5,62,500 male voters, 5,93,960 female voters, apart from four from the third gender, who can cast ballot across 1,722 polling stations.

The BJP, Congress, Goa Forward Party (GFP), Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), AAP, Trinamool Congress Party (TMC), and NCP are the main political parties in the fray. Local outfit Revolutionary Goans is also expected to make an impact with its sizable following. But it is the entry of the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC which has roiled politics in the BJP-ruled state for the past year.

Major parties contesting, new entrants and coalitions:

TMC

Political strategist Prashant Kishor pushed the TMC to focus on Goa after its resounding victory in West Bengal last year.

The party has announced a pre-poll alliance with the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), one of the oldest surviving political parties of Goa. TMC has also inducted several leaders both from Congress as well as BJP. Speculations are that the party sent feelers to all contestants in the polls for an anti-BJP front.

AAP

The AAP will contest all 40 seats in Goa assembly polls and has not declared a chief ministerial candidate. Kejriwal said his party may go for post-poll tie-ups with non-BJP outfits in Goa if there is a fractured mandate and "if it is very necessary". The AAP leader also claimed that if his party comes to power in Goa, people will see huge changes within a month in the way of the government's functioning. The government will also help the industrial houses to conduct their business in the state, he said.

The AAP government would facilitate the re-entry of industries, which have left the coastal state, by providing them all the required assistance, Kejriwal said. On pre-poll alliance with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), which has jumped into the fray in Goa, he claimed the Mamata Banerjee-led party is "not even in the race".

GFP:

The Goa Forward Party (GFP) and Congress have announced a pre-poll alliance, while Nationalist Congress Party is still searching for allies. The GFP is a regional outfit that was a part of the Manohar Parrikar government in 2017.

Congress:

The Congress has decided not to project Chief Ministerial face to overcome internal rift. Congress sources say that it will only be decided after the results and Congress legislature party will decide the new leader with the consent of the high command as except at few occasions, the party has not projected a chief minister's face.

The party has already released two lists but many leaders are upset that their name has been ignored by the party. There are also calls for the Congress to be part of an anti-BJP front, however, nothing seems to have materialised on that front.

While All India Congress Committee senior observer in-charge of Goa P. Chidambaram has said that he was not in a position to comment on the broader anti-BJP coalition issue, state Congress president Girish Chodankar has said that the way Trinamool has gone about setting base in Goa, it appeared that the Congress and not the ruling BJP was the party's main enemy.

BJP:

Even as the consolidation of opposition votes could spell a challenge for the BJP, which until last week was relishing the prospects of a fractured opposition, the BJP has insisted that the coalition was too disparate and will not cut ice with the Goan voters.

Since the early 2000s, an Assembly election in Goa meant a two-cornered contest between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress, with bit players like the once-mighty Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, United Goans Democratic Party playing tag. The Nationalist Congress party too was added to the mix, before Goa Forward, a new regional party also made its presence felt in the 2017 polls.

However with the resurgence of the Aam Aadmi Party and the emergence of the Trinamool Congress -- fresh from its dogged victory against the BJP in the 2021 West Bengal polls -- the flavour of Goa's poll-pot has changed considerably.

Also read: BJP isolated in Goa, but AITC-MGP alliance may have a rocky road ahead

Chief Minister Pramod Sawant has shown confidence that the saffron party will win the election based on its performance and popularity. The saffron party would, however, miss Manohar Parrikar, who passed away in March 2019. Parrikar had played a crucial role in consolidating BJP's power in Goa.

Over the last week, parties from both alliances -- the Trinamool Congress and Goa Forward -- voiced the need for both alliances coming together to form a larger alliance to take on the BJP. The Congress is ready to accept the support of any party that is keen to defeat the BJP in the upcoming Goa Assembly elections, senior leader P Chidambaram said after TMC's Goa desk in-charge Mahua Moitra suggested that the Mamata Banerjee-led party was open to a pre-poll alliance with the Goa Forward Party (GFP) and Congress.

2017 Assembly elections

During the 2017 election, Congress had emerged as the single largest party winning 17 seats, but the BJP trumped it by cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties. By the end of 2021, Congress was left with only two MLAs after it faced a barrage of resignations besides en-masse defection of ten MLAs to the BJP. Two of its MLAs joined the TMC.

Also Read | Will retain Punjab, capture Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur, play decisive role in UP: Congress

BJP -- which bagged 13 seats in 2017 polls, allied with some independents and regional parties to form the government under Manohar Parrikar -- currently has 27 MLAs. Goa Forward Party which had won three seats is left with two MLAs while MGP, which too had won three seats has only one legislator left.

After Parrikar’s death in March 2019, then Assembly Speaker Pramod Sawant became the CM. Sawant’s administration has come in for praise from PM Modi for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and vaccination drive.

What observers have said

Political observers feel the Congress may upset BJP’s plans for retaining power in the coastal state, but appear less enthused about Trinamool Congress, whose entry has added colour to the poll campaign. “Congress will win around 20 of the 40 Assembly seats, while the BJP will garner around 15 seats,” a veteran political analyst based in the Goa capital told PTI. “The Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) is likely to win 3 to 4 seats, and the Aam admi Party (AAP) will bag a seat or two,” the analyst said. He attributed the poll prospects of MGP, which came into prominence under the leadership of Goa’s first chief minister Dayanand Bandodkar, to its alliance with the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC. “On its own, MGP may have fared very badly. But TMC’s monetary clout will help it,” he added.

A poll conducted for Times Now Navbharat by VETO has suggested the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is likely to make an entry in the Goa Assembly. While AAP may not form the government in Goa, it will however finish ahead of the Congress, with a projected 7-11 seats, as opposed to the grand old party's mere 4-6 seats. With an expected 18-22 seats, the BJP may not be able to form a government on its own. The Trinamool Congress, which is making its Goa foray, is not expected to garner even 2 per cent of the votes, the report stated.

(With agency inputs)

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