India may have over 440 million overweight people by 2050: Lancet study

Number of overweight and obese adults by mid-century in India (218 million men and 231 million women) could be the second highest in the world, after China, with the US, Brazil and Nigeria expected to rank third, fourth and fifth, respectively.

New Delhi: India is set to have 45 crore (450 million) obese and overweight individuals by 2050, making it the second highest in the world after China, a new study reported on Monday, flagging an alarming global surge in excess weight among adults and children.

The projected 2.5-fold increase in obesity and overweight individuals in India over the next 25 years mirrors global trends, necessitating urgent policy reforms and action, according to the study.

Globally, around 60 per cent of adults (3.8 billion) and 31 per cent of children and adolescents (746 million) are forecast to be overweight or obese by 2050.

The prevalence in India was low till the 1990s when just about 12 per cent of adult females and 8 per cent of adult males were overweight or obese. But the numbers shot up in the next two decades as a result of which over 25 per cent of females and more than 20 per cent of males are currently either obese or overweight.

These are among the findings of the latest Global Burden of Disease studies led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, and published in the Lancet in two research papers focusing on adults and children.

Public health researchers and the World Health Organisation (WHO) have identified overweight and obesity as a major health crisis and a big threat to global health progress. In 2021, nearly 3·71 million deaths and 129 million morbidity cases were attributable to overweight and obesity.

The trend among adults is also observed in children. Among 5-14 year olds, the estimated number of obese or overweight boys increased from 4.6 million in 1990 to 13.3 million in 2021, and girls from 4.5 million to 12.4 million. By 2050, these figures are projected to rise to 16.1 million boys and 14.4 million girls.

“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said lead author Emmanuela Gakidou at the IHME.

The authors note that more recent generations are gaining weight faster than previous ones and obesity is occurring earlier, increasing the risk of type-2 diabetes, high blood pressure, cardiovascular diseases and multiple cancers occurring at younger ages.

More than half of the world's adults with overweight or obesity in 2021 were concentrated in just eight countries: China (402 million), India (180 million), the USA (172 million), Brazil (88 million), Russia (71 million), Mexico (58 million), Indonesia (52 million), and Egypt (41 million).

The sharp rise in weight gain by Indians matches with the increased consumption of ultra-processed food.

“Between 2009 and 2019, the largest annual growth in ultra-processed food and beverage sales per capita was observed in Cameroon, India and Vietnam,” the researchers noted.

The new findings came out days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his monthly radio programme, addressed rising obesity among Indians and advised reducing oil consumption.