South west monsoon to be above normal; 105% of average rainfall likely between June and September

New Delhi: India is likely to receive above normal monsoon rain this year as the whole country is expected to be showered by nearly 105 per cent of its average rainfall, India Meteorological Department said here on Tuesday.

North Karnataka, Marathwada, Rayalaseema, north Andhra Pradesh and Bastar region in Chhattisgarh are likely to receive copious rainfall between June and September, while Tamil Nadu, Ladakh and North East India will get deficient monsoon. Eastern Bihar and parts of north Bengal may also receive subdued rain.

“The seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 105 per cent of the long period average with a model error of five per cent on either side,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general meteorology at IMD, said.

Calculated over a 50-year period between 1971 and 2020, India’s long period average for south west monsoon stands at 87 cm.

According to the IMD forecast, there is a “strong probability” of monsoon rainfall turning out to be either “above normal” or “excess”.

The south west monsoon is the lifeblood of India’s over 3.5 trillion dollar agriculture-driven economy as farmers rely heavily on the monsoon rains to sow paddy, pulses, oilseeds and jute in fields.

Mohapatra said models showed neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions – a set of global weather patterns related to an unusual warming of the Pacific disrupting weather conditions worldwide - to persist throughout the four-month long monsoon season, benefiting India.

Other favourable factors are two more climate influencers – neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (a temperature sea-saw between the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea) and less snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia between December 2024 and March 2025, which is inversely proportional to a good monsoon in India.

Asked about the declining rainfall forecast for the north east, a region known for excess precipitation, M Ravichandran, Secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences said such a trend is being seen since the past decade.

“The Thar desert areas in Rajasthan are getting relatively more rain while the north east is getting less. Future models also project a similar trend. The reasons are not clear and we are conducting research,” he said.

The IMD will update its seasonal forecast by the last week of May and issue a forecast on the monsoon’s onset date by the middle of next month.