Indian exporters likely to gain from US-China trade war escalation: Experts

New Delhi: The escalating trade war between the US and China is expected to benefit Indian exporters in increasing their shipments to the American market, according to experts.

Federation of Indian Export Organisations (PTI) President S C Ralhan said that imposition of higher tariffs by the US on China will shift demand towards India, which exported goods worth $86 billion to the US in 2024-25.

"We may gain from this escalation," Ralhan said.

The US has announced an additional 100 per cent tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1, 2025, raising the overall tariff rate on Chinese imports to about 130 per cent.

The move came in response to Beijing's October 9, 2025 decision to impose sweeping new controls on rare earth exports, which are indispensable for US defense, electric vehicles, and clean-energy industries.

At present, US tariffs on Indian goods are 50 per cent, more than that of China's 30 per cent.

"Now this 100 per cent additional tariff on Chinese goods will give us an upper edge," a textile exporter said, adding the imposition of higher customs duties by the US on imports from China provides huge export opportunities for India to America.

The tariffs would affect exports from China to the US as they would push prices of their goods in the American market, making them less competitive, another exporter said.

Toy exporter Manu Gupta too said that high duties on Chinese goods will help attract buyers from both these nations.

"It will help us. High duty will create a parity and will give us a level playing field," Gupta said, adding American buyers like retail giant Target have reached out to them for new products.

Think tank GTRI said that the escalating trade tensions between the US and China will push prices of EVs, wind turbines, and semiconductor parts in the global markets.

America depends heavily on China for electronics, textiles, footwear, white goods, and solar panels, it said.

The US remained India's largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024-25, with bilateral trade valued at $131.84 billion ($86.5 billion exports).

The US accounts for about 18 per cent of India's total goods exports, 6.22 per cent in imports, and 10.73 per cent in the country's total merchandise trade. India and the US are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement.