Despite elected govt and Delhi buzz, restoration of J&K statehood still unlikely

Srinagar: Even though Jammu and Kashmir has had an elected government in place since October 2024, the long-promised restoration of statehood continues to remain elusive. 

The return of the popular government, headed by National Conference (NC) leader, Omar Abdullah, following the September 2024 Assembly elections, had sparked optimism that the Union government would follow through on its commitment to return full statehood to the region.

But nearly a year later, there is no sign of movement, either legislative or administrative, to undo the Union Territory status imposed in October 2019.

Speculation about a major announcement gained momentum recently, triggered by a series of high-profile meetings in New Delhi—including separate ones between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah with President Droupadi Murmu at Rashtrapati Bhavan.

The timing of these meetings, close to the sixth anniversary of the abrogation of Article 370, gave rise to renewed rumors in Kashmir that statehood could be restored or that Jammu and Kashmir could be further bifurcated.

Adding to the suspense is the Supreme Court hearing scheduled for August 8, where an application seeking directions to the Centre for restoration of statehood will be taken up.

However, legal experts suggest the court is unlikely to compel the government to act, especially since the issue was already addressed in its December 2023 judgment, where it upheld the abrogation of Article 370 but left the restoration of statehood to the Centre’s discretion.

Despite repeated assurances by Modi and Shah that statehood would be granted at an “appropriate time,” there has been no official roadmap or timeline. According to political observers and security experts several factors appear to be holding the central government back from making a decisive move.

“Maintaining J&K as a UT allows the Centre to retain direct command over key administrative and security functions, especially law and order and land management. For a region still perceived as politically sensitive and vulnerable to security disruptions, the current setup is offering tighter oversight and fewer risks,” a senior security officer said.

Politically, the timing also does not align with any electoral urgency. The next Assembly elections are scheduled for 2029, and there is no immediate pressure from national politics that would compel the Centre to expedite statehood restoration.

“There is also an ideological dimension. The 2019 abrogation of Article 370 and the revocation of statehood were central to the BJP’s nationalist platform. Reversing or even appearing to dilute that move—even partially—risks being seen as a retreat. Restoring statehood, especially under a government led by the National Conference, a party historically critical of BJP’s Kashmir policy, might be viewed internally as compromising on ideological consistency,” political analyst Prof Gul Mohammad Wani told DH.

He said the Centre may be waiting to assess the performance and tone of the elected government over a longer period before considering the transfer of more power.

On the ground, public expectations have diminished. While the return of elections brought some sense of political revival, the continued delay in statehood restoration has deepened public cynicism. Many Kashmiris feel that their democratic agency is symbolic at best.

Every year since 2019, rumors of imminent change have surfaced—often around August—but none have materialized. This pattern has led many to dismiss the latest wave of speculation as yet another distraction from the more pressing governance and developmental issues Kashmir faces.