I.N.D.I.A. bloc discord in open ahead of crucial Jammu and Kashmir Rajya Sabha polls

National Conference and Congress are struggling to keep their alliance intact amid sharp differences that have emerged just days before the crucial election

Srinagar: With voting for four vacant Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir scheduled for Friday, political activity has intensified across the Union Territory’s newly elected Assembly.

The National Conference (NC) and the Congress — partners in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc — are struggling to keep their alliance intact amid sharp differences that emerged just days before the crucial election.

The NC on Wednesday issued a three-line whip directing all its MLAs to vote for the party’s official candidates and refrain from abstaining or cross-voting. However, the Congress, already upset over what it termed “betrayal” by the NC for refusing to give it a safe seat, refused to attend a joint legislature party meeting convened by NC president Farooq Abdullah on Wednesday evening.

The four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir have remained vacant since February 2021, when the terms of the then members — Ghulam Nabi Azad, Nazir Ahmad Laway, Fayaz Ahmad Mir and Shamsher Singh Manhas — ended. The elections are being held for the first time since the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution and the restoration of the Assembly last year.

In the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir Assembly, the National Conference has 41 MLAs followed by 28 of the BJP, Congress six, PDP three, smaller parties and independents 13, while two seats — Budgam and Nagrota — are vacant.

With four Rajya Sabha seats at stake, each candidate will need around 29 first-preference votes to secure a berth in the Upper House, under the single transferable vote system. The NC, with the Congress support, appears well placed to win at least three of the four seats, while the fourth seat remains open to intense lobbying, backroom deals, and possible cross-voting.

Congress’ decision to opt out of the Rajya Sabha race — as well as from the Nagrota Assembly byelection in Jammu — has already upset power equations within the I.N.D.I.A. bloc. The party had earlier rejected NC’s offer of the fourth Upper House seat, deepening tensions between the two.

In a last-minute effort to consolidate non-BJP votes, NC’s Rajya Sabha candidate and Omar Abdullah’s close aide, Shami Oberoi, met PDP president Mehbooba Mufti on Wednesday, seeking her party’s support. Farooq Abdullah also reached out to Mehbooba earlier in the day. Although the PDP has yet to make any public announcement, its three votes could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the fourth seat.

Sources in the Assembly Secretariat said that while the NC is confident of winning the first three Rajya Sabha seats comfortably, the fourth seat’s outcome hinges on independents and smaller parties. Reports of likely cross-voting — coupled with some independents possibly abstaining — have made the contest unpredictable.

For the BJP, which lacks the numbers to secure a seat on its own, the elections are an opportunity to test post-poll equations and exploit the cracks within the Opposition alliance.