NC-Congress poised to sweep 3 of 4 Rajya Sabha seats in J&K; BJP eyes one

Srinagar: With the announcement of Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu & Kashmir, the numbers in the newly formed Legislative Assembly give a clear edge to the ruling National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance, which is expected to secure three of the four seats, while the BJP is likely to claim the remaining one.

Voting for the four seats will be held in three separate elections, with cross-voting and independent MLAs adding an element of uncertainty. The J&K Union Territory (UT) Assembly has 90 seats, with two currently vacant—Budgam and Nagrota—bringing the effective strength to 88, including AAP MLA Mehraj Malik, who is under detention under the Public Safety Act (PSA) but remains eligible to vote.

The NC-led alliance, comprising 41 NC MLAs, six from Congress, five independents, and one from CPI(M), currently has 53 supporting MLAs after Mehraj Malik withdrew his support to the Omar Abdullah-led government.

The BJP holds 28 seats, while six MLAs from smaller Kashmir-based parties and independents form a neutral opposition bloc, including three from the PDP, one from the People’s Conference, and two independents—Shabir Kullay and Sheikh Khursheed. With Malik added, this bloc rises to seven.

Based on current strength, the NC-Congress alliance is expected to win the first two seats comfortably, which could even go uncontested if the BJP decides not to field candidates.

For the third and fourth seats, voting will occur only if the NC-led alliance contests the fourth seat. The alliance is projected to secure 29 first-preference votes for the third seat, leaving 24 second-preference votes for the fourth seat, positioning the BJP favorably to win that seat with its 28 votes.

Cross-voting remains a possibility, particularly among seven independent MLAs, five from the ruling alliance and two from the opposition, who are not required to show marked ballot papers to any authorized agent.

Frontrunners for party tickets have been identified: sources in NC suggest Farooq Abdullah and Sajad Kichloo are likely candidates while Congress is expected to seek one seat, potentially fielding a candidate from mainland Jammu. If NC contests the fourth seat, it may field an influential Shia leader from Budgam, Aga Mehmood.

The BJP, meanwhile, is expected to keep its strategy under wraps, possibly fielding either a former MLA or a new face.

The Rajya Sabha elections in J&K are shaping up as a showcase of alliance arithmetic, with the NC-Congress coalition firmly in control, but the possibility of surprises, including cross-voting, keeping all parties on alert.