BJP expected to come back to power in Karnataka if assembly elections held today: Survey

Bengaluru: The BJP will defeat the Congress in a clearly bipolar contest in Karnataka, with the JD(S) at a distant third, if the Assembly elections are held today, according to a survey by Hyderabad-based people’s pulse organisation and Codemo technologies.

The survey, however, says Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains the most preferred chief ministerial face in the state.

The month-long exercise that surveyed 10,481 respondents, predicted the BJP to assume power with a full majority for the first time in Karnataka, with a score of 136-159 seats.

The Congress is predicted to win 62-82 seats with a reduced vote share of 40.3 per cent (42.88 per cent in 2023). The survey notes that the ruling party faces significant anti-incumbency.

Interestingly, the JD(S) stands to only win 3-6 seats with a highly reduced vote share of 5 per cent (18.3 per cent in 2023), in what could be a clear indication of ensuing bipolarity in state politics.

Though the BJP has been a principal player in state politics over the last 20 years and has emerged as the single largest party on three occasions (2004, 2008, 2018), it has never assumed power on its strength by touching the magic number (simple majority) of 113 seats out of a total 224.

Siddaramaiah most popular

However, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah remains the most popular chief ministerial face across party lines. As many as 29.2 per cent voters voted for Siddaramaiah, followed by 10.7 per cent votes for his deputy D K Shivakumar. Interestingly, though none of the BJP candidates such as former chief ministers B S Yediyurappa (5.5 per cent), Basavaraj Bommai (3.6 per cent) and BJP state president B Y Vijayendra (5.2 per cent) crossed the double digit mark, 16.9 per cent voted for “any BJP candidate.”

While 48.4 per cent of the people felt the governance of the Congress was either very good or good, the remaining 51.6 per cent opined that it was either average, bad or very bad.

Those aware likely to favour caste census

As many as 42.3 per cent of the respondents trusted the Social and Educational Survey report (caste census) either fully or partially (26.3 per cent fully, 16 per cent partially). 35 per cent didn’t trust the report, while 22.7 per cent of the respondents weren’t even aware of the exercise.

While 39.6 per cent of the respondents favouring the Congress fully trusted the report, 18.5 per cent of their counterparts choosing the BJP trusted it fully.

Gruha Lakshmi most popular guarantee

With a mandate of 45.4 per cent of the voters, the Gruha Lakshmi scheme, which provides Rs 2,000 per month to the woman head of the family, was found to be the most popular of the five flagship guarantees of the Congress.

It was followed by Shakti (19 per cent), Anna Bhagya (17 per cent), Gruha Jyothi (13.5 per cet) and Yuva Nidhi (2 per cent) schemes. As many as 3 per cent respondents said they were unaware of the guarantees.