Political headwinds against BJP gain force

From Manipur to Maharashtra to Mizoram, the BJP is on the back foot. It’s ‘double engine sarkar’ has not helped its cause

Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari

What is common between Manipur, Mizoram, and Maharashtra? The three states have become problematic for Prime Minister Narendra Modi for diverse reasons. 

Recent developments in these three states have made the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) uncomfortable due to a variety of reasons. The issues that have come to the fore have become a test for the ruling party.

Manipur, witnessing ethnic violence for the past six months, have exposed the BJP’s politics like never before. The Modi government’s ‘sab ka sath, sab ka vishwas’ promise looks trashed in the sensitive North-eastern state with impunity despite it having the ‘double engine’ benefit of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government both at the state and Centre.

Manipur’s N Biren Singh government has become one of the most controversial dispensations in the states in recent years amid charges of omission and commission in the ethnic strife. What has added fuel to the fire is the Prime Minister’s failure to visit the state where the majority Meities and minority Kukis are on a warpath. What has happened in Manipur is a black mark on democracy, and what is needed is the healing touch of the leader so that the rule of law can be re-established without fear or favour. Here at stake is the idea of India. 

The problem is compounded by the failure of a majority of India’s mainstream media to tell the people what is happening on the ground. The Modi dispensation has ignored the Opposition’s calls for sending an all-party delegation to the troubled state. Strangely, Modi failed to even give an audience to delegations of leaders from Manipur, one which included a former Chief Minister.

Mizoram, bordering Manipur is poll-bound, but the BJP is not making a splash in any way. What the world’s largest political party and its leader received was a rebuff from an NDA partner which has been ruling the North-eastern state. Chief Minister Zoramthanga shocked the BJP by telling it bluntly that it should not expect him to share the stage with Modi. He said that the people of Mizoram are angry with the way the BJP has responded to the violence in Manipur and at this time to be seen as aligned with the BJP “will be a big minus point for my party”.

No ally of the BJP had been so plain and brutal to Modi, and the BJP had to grin and bear it. This has ensured that the Prime Minister has kept away from ground campaigns in Mizoram aware of the winds blowing there. Perhaps, Modi does not want to be seen as an ineffective campaigner, and ridiculed if the poll outcome is unfavourable. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh was handed out the unenviable task. Manipur is an important talking point in Mizoram.

In Maharashtra, Modi will be facing the biggest test after the results of the ongoing assembly polls to five states. The test relates to the vexed issue of Maratha reservation, which cannot be resolved without the effective intervention of the Centre.

The state has become volatile after Manoj Jarange Patil virtually hijacked the agitation over the demand and has succeeded in forcing the state government to pursue the issue on a war footing.

Patil’s fast on the issue has brought to the fore the obscure activist from the backward Marathwada region, and the powers-that-be are forced to listen to him after he became the leader of the 40 million Marathas, especially the disgruntled youth who are at the end of their wits.

Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are yet to utter a word over the deepening crisis in Maharashtra. The issue could make or mar BJP’s prospects in the Lok Sabha and assembly polls if a resolution isn't reached within the next two months, the breathing space offered by Patil while suspending his fast. 

Maharashtra is a crucial state in Indian politics, with 48 Lok Sabha seats, second only to Uttar Pradesh's 80 seats. The BJP's ascent in the state, both in the assembly and Lok Sabha, can be attributed to Modi's emergence on the national scene in May 2014. However, in the 16 months since coming to power, the BJP has faced challenges in establishing a stable and effective rule in Maharashtra. 

If Modi fails to give up his ‘eloquent silence’ and is not seen in a proactive mode to address the issue, the road to the 2024 general elections will get even more arduous for the ruling BJP.

(Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are senior journalists.)

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)