The BJP-led NDA will romp home comfortably in the Lok Sabha elections if the Samajwadi Party and BSP fail to stitch an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, a survey by ABP News and C-Voter predicted on Monday.
The NDA is poised to get 291 seats if Lok Sabha elections are held now in case the SP and the BSP do not join hands. But if a grand alliance happens in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP-led coalition's numbers will come down to 247, which is 25 short of majority mark.
According to the survey, the UPA will win 171 seats and others 125 in the event of SP-BSP alliance. In the event of SP and BSP fighting against each other, the number of others will be reduced to 81 while the UPA will remain 171.
In Uttar Pradesh, if there is an SP-BSP alliance, this combine is poised to get 50 seats while the Congress is likely to get two seats. In case there is no alliance, the NDA is likely to get 72 seats while the Congress, the BSP and the SP will get two seats each.
The survey predicts that the BJP is likely to continue its good run in states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan though they may lose a few seats. In the 2014 polls, the BJP had won almost all the seats from these states.
According to the survey, the NDA may get 19 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, 23 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh and 24 out of 26 in Gujarat.
In Bihar where the RJD and Congress alliance with other parties, the BJP-JD(U)-LJP combine is likely to get 35 seats, leaving just five to the 'grand alliance'.
It said, in Maharashtra, the Congress-NCP will do better with 30 seats compared to NDA's 18. Odisha will be another catchment area for the NDA (15 seats) where ruling BJD (six seats) is predicted to lose heavily.
The bulk of UPA's 171 is likely to come from the south where it is likely to garner 80 seats while leaving NDA with just 15 seats and others 34.