Three-cornered political potboiler: Vijay challenges DMK-AIADMK grip in Tamil Nadu

Chennai: 2026 will be a watershed year for Tamil Nadu as the April-May assembly elections will test whether the two dominant forces -- DMK and AIADMK – continue to hold sway over the masses or witness the emergence of a third force in actor Vijay, who has already disrupted the political landscape.

As things stand today, the 2026 elections promises to be an intense three-cornered political potboiler with the DMK, AIADMK, and Vijay’s Tamilaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK), locking horns. Tamil nationalist Seeman’s Naam Tamizhar Katchi (NTK) remains on the sidelines.

Vijay is the latest from Kollywood to test waters in politics, though the fortunes of his predecessors have had varied results. While M G Ramachandran, and J Jayalalithaa achieved phenomenal success, Sivaji Ganesan, and Kamal Hassan failed miserably, and Vijayakanth did alter the bipolar politics for a brief period but could not sustain it for long.

Even if Vijay may not be able to recreate the MGR magic in his debut elections, given the fragmented polity, he is likely to make a bigger impact than Vijayakanth, who secured 8.5 per cent votes in his first elections. Political parties are taking Vijay seriously -- not just because of the cult status he enjoys among his fans -- but also due to “internal surveys” showing his party with more than 15 percent vote share.

Besides young voters and a section of women, Vijay is likely to be the favourite among people who are fatigued by the Dravidian parties who have been ruling the state alternatively since 1967.

Both the DMK and AIADMK are facing challenges in giving final shape to their alliances with constituents ramping up demands for more seats and even a share of power. National parties like Congress and BJP and smaller parties believe they can’t be taken for granted in a triangular contest.

Vijay’s entry has boosted the bargaining power of many ‘secular’ parties who now see him as an alternative.

For the DMK, the troubles are just beginning. Anti-incumbency against Chief Minister M K Stalin’s government is building, with the party’s key vote bank – government employees – ready to take to the streets next week demanding fulfillment of poll promises. Meanwhile, sanitary workers and nurses are already protesting seeking regularization of their services.

Though Stalin appears confident of scripting history – no DMK chief minister has won a successive election after serving a full-term – problems are piling up. Rumblings within the Congress where a section wants to ally with Vijay threaten the Secular Progressive Alliance, which has won every poll since 2019.

AIADMK and BJP are scrambling to rally all anti-DMK parties to their side as they vie to hog the media limelight with Vijay framing the 2026 contest as DMK versus TVK, eyeing a chunk of anti-government and anti-DMK votes. Yet the alliance also grapples with a perception that it is not strong enough to take on a “formidable” DMK combine and even let OPS and T T V Dhinakaran walk away from the NDA.

The 2026 elections are extremely crucial for the AIADMK as the party has never won an election since J Jayalalithaa’s death in 2016 and the NDA continues to face criticism for failing to create a strong narrative against the ruling regime. The party keeps justifying its alliance with BJP, which the DMK has painted as Tamil Nadu’s villain.

Efforts by the AIADMK and BJP to win over the actor have failed so far with Vijay insisting that any party that accepts him as the CM candidate is welcome to forge an alliance.

Vijay seems to be the X factor this election, poised to dent the vote banks of both Dravidian majors, including DMK-loyal minorities. If OPS and TTV join the TVK-led alliance, they are likely to further strengthen Vijay’s hand since they can get a chunk of the dominant Mukulathor votes in southern and central TN.

Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told DH that Vijay has emerged as the biggest challenger to the Dravidian parties till date. “It looks like he will be plucking votes from every side. He is starting off not as a dark horse but as a white Arabian horse. If Vijayakant was a wind and shower, Vijay seems to be a storm,” he said.

Singh said the situation would turn topsy turvy if Vijay joins the NDA and takes on the DMK alliance, which will be weighed down by anti-incumbency.

“If all anti-DMK forces join hands, then it looks like the game is over for the ruling party. Vijay’s support base might increase in the coming months as people might fall for his rhetoric that he left the high-yielding profession to serve them,” Singh added.