Water experts deny India deliberately released water to cause floods in Pakistan’s Punjab: Report

Islamabad: India cannot be directly blamed for the devastating monsoon flooding in Pakistan this year, and the catastrophic rains have caused far greater destruction upstream of the border rather than in the country, hydrology experts explained on Wednesday.

The experts, as quoted by a media report, suggested that contrary to the popular opinion, and even some officials' claim, that the devastating flooding in Pakistan was caused by release of water by India, there is no proof of intentional action (by India).

Entire northwest India and Pakistan's Punjab province have been witnessing torrential rainfall since mid-August resulting in almost all rivers and tributaries flowing over danger levels.

The provincial government in Punjab had last week said that the unprecedented monsoon rains and the release of excess water from the Indian side swelled the three eastern rivers – the Sutlej, Ravi and Chinab.

When The Express Tribune spoke with experts to understand how dam water release works, they attributed multiple reasons for flooding.

Dr Hassaan F Khan, an urban water expert at Tufts University, explained that every dam has two main systems: regular release gates and spillways.

The regular gates are used for water supply needs, such as agriculture, and are considered normal releases. “But when a dam fills to its maximum capacity, water cannot be held back because of the risk of structural damage,” he said.

According to Dr Hassaan, India released water from multiple dams in recent days as they had reached their capacity. “That is what the Indian side is claiming,” he said. “While Pakistan cannot verify this directly, it makes sense given the context. Such releases are not unusual.” Both extreme rainfall and weather played a role in this year’s flooding in the region. “India saw record-breaking rains, especially in Himachal Pradesh, which sent large flows of water into rivers,” he pointed out. “India was also forced to release water into the Sutlej and Ravi.”

India warned Pakistan about the “high probability” of flooding in the Sutlej river, with incessant rainfall in the northern states forcing the release of excess water from major dams on Tuesday. The alerts were routed to Islamabad through the Ministry of External Affairs on “humanitarian grounds.” Muhammad Umer Karim, a senior researcher and water resource specialist, explained the natural hydrology or water system cycle for the affected area.

“In our region, water freezes in winter as ice and glaciers, then thaws in the summer. Combined with monsoon rains, this increases the river flows. Melting glaciers add to this volume. Spillways are opened only when dams are full.

“For the rest of the year, water is gradually taken out through canals for drinking and irrigation. This time, Indian dams were overflowing, which also led to flooding in the eastern rivers,” Karim said.

Environmental lawyer Ahmed Rafay Alam pointed out that dam infrastructure on both sides is “essentially the same.” India has three major dams on the Jhelum, Beas, and Ravi. Pakistan has Mangla and Tarbela dams. “Both countries store monsoon and glacier water for winter crops, and both sets of dams were built by American companies. Their designs and operations are essentially the same.” This year, however, the situation became critical. “The Pong Dam on the Beas, the Bhakra Dam on the Sutlej near Himachal Pradesh, and the Madhopur Headworks on the Ravi reached dangerous levels between August 23 and 25,” he said.

“To protect infrastructure, India opened the spillways. This is what we call a ‘controlled release’ of water,” Alam said.

In response to a question, Dr Hassaan stressed there is no evidence that India deliberately released water to harm Pakistan. “Speculation is possible, but we have never found proof of intentional action,” he said.

Dr Daanish Mustafa, a Professor of Water Resource Geography at King’s College, London, added: “Water release occurs when the safe design capacity of a reservoir is exceeded. No infrastructure can stop the peak flow of monsoon water.” “More rain means more water – it’s that simple. In fact, India has faced even greater destruction than Pakistan, because by the time the water reaches us, its force is already reduced.” The experts clarified that the main floodwaters do not flow straight from India into Pakistan. Instead, they first pass through several Indian towns and villages, travelling 100–150 kms before crossing the border.

“Indian water releases added to Pakistan’s misery,” Alam said, “but there is no evidence they were intentional. India itself suffered similar destruction.” As per the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) data, between June 26 when the monsoon rains started till August 31, there were 209 deaths in Punjab province even as millions of people have been displaced due to devastating floods with over 2,000 villages inundated.