Winds of change in Assam

The just-concluded Assembly election has made political history in Assam, but the political shift was introduced in the state through the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The result amply reveals the changing nature of political dynamics in the state. By bringing to an end the 15-year-old Congress rule in the state, the BJP and its alliance partners have come to power, and that, too, with 86 MLAs in the 126-member state Assembly. 

The mandate is seen as the voters seeking a change to end troubles, towards good governance and the development of the state. The promise will have to be fulfilled in the time to come for the troubles of the state to recede. The Congress’ three consecutive terms has failed to show evidence of fulfilling the above expectations. What is more significant is that the voters have delivered a clear mandate. The BJP has secured 60 seats and its vote share has jumped to 29.5%, as against the five seats and 11.47% votes it garnered in the 2011 polls.

The Congress ended the campaign with just 26 seats and 31.2% votes, far below its tally of 78 seats with a vote share of 39% in the 2011 election. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) of Badruddin Ajmal suffered a serious setback this time, slumping to 13 seats from the 18 it won in the 2011 polls. 

Not only that, Ajmal lost in Salmara South, a Muslim dominated constituency in the Dhubri district of Assam bordering Bangladesh. The result reveals a change in loyalties among the Muslims, the Ahom tribe and tea-belt communities. The Hindu polarisation around the BJP, however, is not in line with counter-consolidation of Muslims behind any one party. 

The Muslim voters did not vote en bloc. In fact, they remained as badly divided between the Congress and the AIUDF as they have been for the last several elections. 

The AIUDF’s chief campaign divided Assamese voters along communal lines. This made it easier for the BJP-led alliances to mobilise Hindu voters. Indigenous communities largely rallied behind the BJP-led alliance, considering it as a better alternative than the Congress to defeat the AIUDF.

 The 2016 election reminds one of a similar poll upheaval in the 1985 edition when the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) made history, all by itself, by overthrowing the Congress. Interestingly, some of the stalwarts of the then AGP, including its president Prafulla Mahanta who subsequently became chief minister for two terms, are in the present alliance with the BJP. The common chord that seems to bind the two parties, including other ethnic partners, is the guarantee of security to the indigenous people, settling the foreigners issue and the sealing of the Indo-Bangla border. 

The Centre for the Studies of Developing Societies (CSDS) Assam Elections Survey 2016 clearly showed that 75% of Assamese Hindus and 68% of Bengali Hindus saw the “illegal migration” issue as important and not something that had been blown out of proportion.

With the BJP ruling the roost in New Delhi and the above issues remaining almost unaddressed in the state, the voters may have considered the present chemistry between the regional and national party as a potential way to resolve the lingering tangle. This inner logic may have prompted them to remain in proximity with the Central government.

In spite of this massive victory, it is too early to affirm that the troubled state will be on the road to recovery. The future of both the BJP and the regional forces will depend less on short-term political exigencies and more on how well they respond to and meet the dormant political desires of hitherto unrepresented social forces under larger federal political umbrella that can effectively strike a balance between the ruling segments and the minorities. 

Much of the problem of the state has to be located in the larger Centre-state relations and in the bigger question of nation building.

(The writer is professor at Department of Political Science, Guwahati University)