BJP may breathe easy in Rajya Sabha after June 19 polls

BJP could breathe easy regarding its numbers in Rajya Sabha after elections are held on June 19 of 24 Rajya Sabha seats including 18 polling for which was deferred in May in view of growing spread of coronavirus after 37 of 55 candidates were declared unopposed on March 19 amid the high voltage political drama and heightened tension in few states.

NDA, which was expected to lose between three-four as per its strength in the states earlier, has got a shot in arm with BJP managing to overthrow Congress government in Madhya Pradesh.

Currently the BJP has 75 members, followed by a distant 39 of Congress, 13 of Trinamool Congress, 09 each of AIADMK and BJD, 08 of Samajwadi Party, 07 each of TRS and DMK, 05 each of JD(U) CPI-M, RJD, 04 each of BSP and NCP, 03 each of Shiv Sena, Shiromani Akali Dal and Aam Aadmi Party and two each of PDP and YSR Congress, besides one member from a large number of parties.

With allies AIADMK, JD(U), Shiromani Akali Dal, Asom Gana Parishad, the Bodoland People’s Front, Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) and the Republican Party of India (A), NDA is 104 including three nominated MPs and four independents, who support it. Add the 09 from BJD, 07 from TRS, two from YSRC Congress and one from NPF, which have many bailed out the BJP in Rajya Sabha during contentious issues, NDA has the number of 123 to get bills passed with simple majority, not accounting those who help it by abstaining.

Of this, YSR Congress will gain substantially in Andhra Pradesh, BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. BJP will be at a disadvantage in Rajasthan and Jharkhand, where it lost assembly polls in 2018 and 2020 as well in Gujarat, where Congress improved its tally in the last assembly polls.

Six new seats have fallen vacant in June and July while 18 seats are from the 55 seats for which elections were to be held in March. Elections will be held for four Rajya Sabha seats each from Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka, 03 from Rajasthan, 03 from Madhya Pradesh, 02 from Jharkhand and one each from Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram.

Election in Madhya Pradesh is the most keenly watched which has changed into a BJP ruled state from Congress-ruled when elections for 55 Rajya Sabha seats were announced by the Election Commission in February. The royal scion Jyotiraditya Scindia, who left Congress and joined the BJP with a flock of 22 MLAs flocking, is one of the BJP candidates from Madhya Pradesh in the Rajya Sabha polls.

BJP has attempted to push the boundaries by fielding more candidates that its strength has made the contest interesting even in Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Jharkhand.

With memories of 2017 Rajya Sabha polls, where Congress’ Ahmed Patel could barely scrape through despite the party having sufficient numbers, fresh, Congress is leaving no stone unturned this time to ensure that the BJP does not manage to win both seats vacated by Union Ministers Amit Shah and Smriti Irani (both became Lok Sabha MPs in 2019) as the saffron party’s strength came down after the 2018 assembly poll results.

In Rajasthan four candidates are in the fray for three seats. As per strength Congress can win two and BJP one but BJP fielded a second candidate indicating there will be some spectacle worth watching in the politics of the border state.

In Andhra Pradesh five candidates—four from YSR Congress and one from TDP are in the fray for four seats while in Jharkhand three candidates including JMM patriarch Sibu Soren are in fray for two seats.